• mohd.shakib@smanik.com
  • November 7, 2015

This is the final piece on request of followers though I have made myself amply clear that NDA will win with 127, MGA at 111 and Others at 5.

The D-Day is nearing, only a day’s wait till the results of Bihar elections are out. It has kept political analysts, voters, public interested in politics / elections glued to TV screens, print media, social media platforms.

I attempted to answer the puzzle in a 5 part series named Who will win Bihar before the polls started. Based on a myriad of factors PB projected a NDA win with 123-147 seats, Janata alliance (MGB) getting 89-102 seats and Others 7-18 seats (pre-poll).

During the course of polls I presented a Phase wise (till Phase 3 even seat wise) predictions based on feedback from volunteers / supporters / followers / media persons on the ground. On the day Phase V elections were taking place and before the exit polls got released I presented Phase V Predictions & Who wins Bihar and showed the following two scenarios:

Scenario 1: MGB 124, NDA 114, Others 5 (35% probability)

Scenario 2: NDA 127, MGB 11, Others 5 (65% probability)

Since it is a damn close elections & exit polls won’t give clarity which I have been saying all along the above hypothesis was not unfounded.

People really enjoyed the reasoning and logic of the above predictions and I received wonderful comments / appreciation on social media for this piece. Some people however were not happy asking me to take a stand.

I think the stand has been very clear since the beginning 123-147 seats for NDA (pre-poll) as well as post-poll NDA win. The post poll analysis overwhelmingly shows (65% is > than 35%) that I project NDA to win. This I clarified the same day with some tweets & later tweets as well.

Other polls already point towards my above forecast. Infact NDTV first three phases were very similar to what I said in my post poll updates.

So I maintain my stand of NDA win with NDA at 127, MGB at 111 and Others at 5. And if MGB wins don’t worry I won’t take credit and preach on top that I was right.

Though I still maintain elections are damn close meaning victory margins of NDA candidates will be in the range of 3-5,000 votes for most seats.

Good Night guys. Sleep well…

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