• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • May 14, 2014

The state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) sends 80 Members of Parliament (MP) to Lok Sabha (largest by any state, 15% of total Parliament strength) and is very crucial for govt. formation at the center.  Uttarakhand was carved out of the state in 2000 and its seats reduced to 80 from 85.The state has produced majority of the Prime Ministers of India. 8 out of 13 PMs of India were MPs from UP namely Jawahar Lal Nehru (Phulpur), Lal Bahadur Shastri (Allahabad), Indira Gandhi (Rae Bareli), Charan Singh (Baghpat), Rajiv Gandhi (Amethi), V.P. Singh (Fatehpur), Chandrasekhar (Ballia) and Atal Bihari Vajpayee (Lucknow). No wonders Narendra Modi (BJP’s PM candidate) also is contesting from UP (Varanasi).

UP used to be a Congress bastion till late mid 1980s with Jawahar Lal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi all MPs from the state. It was hijacked by Mandal movement in early 1990s by Janata Dal. The Ram Mandir movement made it a BJP stronghold in 1990s which propelled it to form govt at the center in 1998. Decline of Congress and in early 2000s even BJP in the state, led to emergence of two key state parties – Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) – built around a caste based cadre, BSP (Dalits) and SP (Muslims / Yadavs / OBCs). BSP and SP (once allies) have been forming state govts. independently in the state for the past decade. Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is another regional party which has a strong presence in western UP (among Jats) as his father & former PM was from this region. In a nutshell, UP a Congress bastion (51 seats in 1980, 83 seats in 1984), became a BJP stronghold (50+ in 1991/96/98) and is now dominated by SP and BSP.

BJP’s vote share has shrunk consistently since 1998 plummeting to 17.5% in 2009. However, because of the Ram Mandir movement, party has presence across all seats, while Congress is strong in Western UP due to Ajit Singh’s RLD and some parts of eastern / central UP (Amethi / Raebareli and adjoining areas). This is why perhaps despite similar vote share, Congress won 21 seats while BJP 10 in 2009.

Parties

Particulars

1991

1996

1998

1999

2004

2009

Congress+

Seats

5

5

0

10

9

21

 

Vote Share

18.0%

8.1%

6.0%

14.7%

12.0%

18.3%

BJP

Seats

51

52

57

29

10

10

 

Vote Share

32.8%

33.4%

36.5%

27.6%

22.2%

17.5%

BSP

Seats

1

6

4

14

19

20

 

Vote Share

8.7%

20.6%

20.9%

22.1%

24.7%

27.4%

SP

Seats

22

16

20

26

35

23

 

Vote Share

21.3%

20.8%

28.7%

24.1%

26.7%

23.3%

 

There are 13.5 crore electorate in UP, of whom OBCs constitute 34.7% (Kurmis 7.5%, Jats 3.6%, Lodhs 5%, Teli / Sahu 4% & Rest others), 9.6% Yadavs, 20.1% Dalits, 18% Muslims, 7.6% Brahmins and Thakurs and 10.1% others.

BJP got 53% votes of Brahmins / Thakurs, 5% SC / ST, 6% Muslims, 6% Yadavs, 23% Kurmis, 17% Lodhs and 29% Other OBCs votes in 2009. (Source: CSDS-Lokniti preliminary results of the National Election Studies 2009)

UP politics has become very caste based after Ram Mandir mudda evaporated from the scene. In 2009, 73% of Yadavs voted for SP. Contrary to popular belief, Muslim votes were split evenly (SP 30%, Cong 25%, BSP 18%). Muslims tactically voted for the candidate best suited to defeat BJP. Upper caste votes were split between BJP and Congress. SP garnered 32% of Lodh votes courtesy Kalyan Singh (who supported SP in those elections). This hurt BJP whose vote share from the community shrank 24%. However, this factor also reduced SP’s Muslim vote share (-17%) from 2007 assembly elections as Kalyan Singh was the CM when Babri Masjid was demolished. BSP continued to enjoy majority of Dalits support. So we see that Hindus votes get split between BJP / Congress (Upper caste), SP (Yadavs / Lodhs) and BSP (Dalits). On the other hand though Muslim votes split, they are believed to go en bloc to one candidate in any constituency.

Modi’s dreams of becoming PM will be made or shattered by Hindus of UP. If Hindus vote for BJP irrespective of caste, then its overall vote share will increase and so will the seats. Following indicators point to the same:

(i) A section of upper caste votes could get transferred from Congress to BJP. Modi fighting from Varanasi (holy town) has conjured up a Hindu nationalist wave and  is one of the reasons.

(ii) Kalyan Singh is back in BJP and could help get back some Lodh votes. Plus Modi’s OBC status could wean away some Other OBCs votes from other parties.

(iii) Alliance with Apna Dal could get BJP majority of Kurmis votes. Jats are upset with their leader Ajit Singh due to his not coming to see them during Muzaffarnagar riots and would want to teach him a lesson.

BJP is also banking on Dalits who voted for it in state assembly elections recently (BJP won 67 / 71 reserved seats in 4 states in Dec. 2013). It is trying to lure them away from Mayawati, it is unlikely they might swing in large nos. In the 4 states BSP is not strong hence they voted for BJP. While Yadavs are still expected to go with their messiah Mulayam, Muslims are believed to be voting tactically.

If BJP gets additional 20% upper caste votes, 75% of Kurmis, Lodhs, Teli & Jat votes & 50% of other OBC votes, it would get 33% of votes similar to 1991 / 1996 and could actually end up getting 50 seats. This would increase BJP’s chances of getting closer to majority and Modi becoming PM. 

 

2009

 

2014E

 

 

Vote Share (Approx)

% of Population

W. Avg.

 

Vote Share (Approx)

% of Population

W. Avg.

Comments

Brahmin / Thakur

54.0%

7.6

4

 

75.0%

7.6

6

Modi Varanasi nomination might help

Kurmis

23.0%

7.5

2

 

75.0%

7.5

6

Alliance with Apna Dal

Lodhs

17.0%

5.0

1

 

75.0%

5.0

4

Kalyan Singh back in BJP

Jats

29.0%

3.6

1

 

75.0%

3.6

3

Jats angry with Ajit Singh due to Muzaffarnagar

Teli

29.0%

4.0

1

 

75.0%

4.0

3

Modi’s same caste would want to see him as PM

Other OBCs

29.0%

14.6

4

 

50.0%

14.6

7

Modi’s OBC status would help

Yadavs

6.0%

9.6

1

 

6.0%

9.6

1

Stay with Mulayam

Dalits

5.0%

20.1

1

 

5.0%

20.1

1

Stay with Mayawati

Muslims

6.0%

18.0

1

 

6.0%

18.0

1

Won’t vote because of polarisation

Others

24.0%

10.1

2

 

24.0%

11.0

3

Status quo

Total

 

 

~18

 

 

 

~33

 

However, if it manages to get additional 20% upper caste votes but only 50% of Kurmis, Lodhs, Teli & Jat & other OBC votes, it would get 28% of votes similar to 1999 and could actually end up getting 30 seats. 

Majority exit polls show that BJP is getting 45+ in UP. 

Modi’s PM dream hinges on the fact that Hindus vote for BJP in overwhelming numbers in UP, irrespective of their caste and give a thumbs up to the “development” agenda of BJP. Only time will tell……

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Politicalbaaba 2014-05-16 08:41:06/ Reply

Thanks a lot for this detailed analysis.

pushpendra

pushpendra 2014-05-16 08:35:26/ Reply

Upper caste has voted in one way to bjp this time. Bjp was d first choice for them in all seats including those where someone from their caste was candidate from some other party. for example in fatehpur sikri, which is a thakur nd brahmin dominated seat, there was very strong brahmin candidate from bsp nd two very strong thakur candidates from SP nd RLD, most upper caste votes were polled their for BJPs jat candidate who were not popular among them nd were given ticket very late. this happen on every seat nd there is very less chance of winning of any seat by upper caste candidates of parties other than bjp. ppl voted this time only for modi, they didnt see any candidate. Upper castes voted even for those candidates of bjp whom they hated very much.

pushpendra

pushpendra 2014-05-16 08:20:07/ Reply

ajit will came 3rd this time in baghpat. he is not going to win any seat. hema malini will win from mathura with more than 2 lakh votes.

pushpendra

pushpendra 2014-05-16 03:24:28/ Reply

Bjp will win 60 to 70 seats in UP. Out of 80 seats in UP only Mainpuri,Badaun, Rae Bareilly r d sests which bjp cant win. in rest of d seats either bjp is winning convincingly or they r in fight with having advantage in most seats. In first phase only saharanpur nd bijnore is doubtful but bjp is ahead there. in second phase in rampur nd sambhal there is fight with advantage to SP in sambhal nd to BJP in Rampur. in third phase there is a fight in fatehpur sikri, firozabad nd kannauj, mostly bcoz of massive rigging there. In fourth phase there is fight in mohanlalganj, dhaurhara. Bjp is convinvingly winning rest of the seats except rae bareilly. In fifth phase, there is fight in Amethi,kaushambi,Gonda,shravasti with advantage to congress in Amethi nd to BJP in rest three. In sixth phase, there is tight fight on Azamgarh nd Ghazipur. BJP is winning rest of the seats convincingly.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-15 16:55:26/ Reply

If Muslims had voted en masse and their percentage is higher than that of Hindus, BJP will not hv such a big win or even halt at 35-40. But, none of the surveys pointed to this fact... I dont give much importance to thereports of IB as they proved themselves wrong in most of the situations, they projected 4-6 seats for BJP in WB. Lets see if BJP can get those figures. All exit polls pointed towards one fact that not all Muslims voted for one party or one particular candidate in each and every constituency. 70-75% is what they projected. Considering this, out of 18% Muslim Voters (65% must hv voted and 75% of 65% to the candidate who can defeat BJP candidate). Still, if 65% of other OBCs (out of 34.7% of voters), 20% of Dalits of 20% of voters, 10% Yadavas of 9.6% of voters, 65% of Brahmins+Thakurs of approx 8% of voters form an excellent counter toit. Yadava votes will go to SP in large number so does Dalit Votes to BSP... 14% Muslim vote and 15% Dalit Votes can give BSP a surge with 5% other votes in constituencies where they can defeat BJP, But 6% Upper Castes, 23+% of Other OBCs, 4% of Dalits, 1% of Yadavas, 0.5% of Shias and 0.5% of Others can counter it. OBC votes may go 70% to BJP so as Upper Castes. So, abv 40 is almost assured as far as i believe.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 16:14:48/ Reply

Thanks

Sachin

Sachin 2014-05-15 12:52:13/ Reply

Great Job !! Very good analysis.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 12:27:34/ Reply

Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 11:16:43/ Reply

Let's see tom. It's all speculation.

kashmakash

kashmakash 2014-05-15 10:53:01/ Reply

You forget that in Western UP, minorities are 27-35 % of the population.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 09:30:41/ Reply

Let's see. Can't be ruled out. 90% of 20% = 18% (Muslims). 50% of 82% is 41% (Hindus vote share). So still there is a big gap.

kashmakash

kashmakash 2014-05-15 09:23:00/ Reply

RaGa's foreign trip two days before election results seems strange. If Intelligence Bureau and Election Commission reports are to be believed, a nasty surprise could be in store for Modi and BJP. Check out: http://www.deccanchronicle.com/140515/nation-current-affairs/article/muslim-turnout-exceeds-hindus-uttar-pradesh

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 09:22:16/ Reply

Thanks Anand. You could be true. I have tried to show even in a worse case scenario, BJP getting 33% vote share. If more Dalits and Yadavs vote for party, the it will touch 40%.

Anand

Anand 2014-05-15 08:53:15/ Reply

20% of yadav votes is moving towards Modi in UP. I fell 10-15% of Dalit votes are moving towards Modi. It is also wrong to say that he does not belong to OBC as one post said. His caste was part of OBC as part of 1994 notification. Equivalent caste in UP is Teli as somebody pointed out

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 08:45:12/ Reply

Thanks. Position should be clear by late afternoon.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 08:43:43/ Reply

Thanks very much possible.

Dabangg hindu

Dabangg hindu 2014-05-15 08:29:16/ Reply

Modijee geting huge 70+ seats alone from uttar pradesh

annetbell

annetbell 2014-05-15 00:49:02/ Reply

http://qz.com/207672/theres-a-simple-reason-narendra-modi-will-be-indias-next-prime-minister/ Thought you might like this article. What time in India on Friday will the announcement and details be made?

Vijay Tiwari

Vijay Tiwari 2014-05-14 23:38:33/ Reply

I cannot digest the fact that Modiji lied on OBC status...Fact: He doesn't belong to OBC.. Good Post..Whatever it is will see on 16th May I.e. U.P. voted BJP handsomely irrespective of caste and creed...Thank You 😊

Shawshanko

Shawshanko 2014-05-14 23:12:59/ Reply

सुना तो है की चमत्कार हो रहा है। चन्द घंटों के बाद देश आबाद हो रहा है !!!

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-14 19:19:31/ Reply

I believe NDA will just cross 40 on an average case and 50 in a frenzy like situation... It can be named a Tsunami if it breaches 55

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-14 18:31:02/ Reply

Ha ha good one sirji.

Pradeep Shanker

Pradeep Shanker 2014-05-14 18:23:48/ Reply

लिखा लिखी की है नहीं, देखा दिखी बात, दूल्हा दुल्हन चढ़ गए, फीकी पड़ी बरात| All stats will go away on 16th. Then intellectuals will reach on "why they gone wrong"

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