• mohd.shakib@smanik.com
  • January 28, 2017
Agra: Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati addressing the crowd  during a mega rally in Agra on Sunday. PTI Photo  (PTI8_21_2016_000111A) *** Local Caption ***

STRENGTHS

  • Significant support among Dalits
  • Strong support among poor and lower class
  • Mayawati tallest woman leader with ears on the ground
  • Cadre based party with each seat having 20-30,000 dedicated voters
  • Decent support amongst Muslims and Brahmins (c.20% each)
  • Strong presence across all seven regions of the state

WEAKNESS

  • Exodus of senior leaders like Maurya, Chaudhary and Pathak
  • Allegations of demanding cash for tickets has hurt image
  • Too much reliance on Mayawati and no significant second rung leadership
  • Failure to stitch alliance with AIMIM / other smaller parties
  • Rigid, Inflexible leadership, Over confidence

OPPORTUNITY

  • To form govt. in the state after 5 years
  • Win cements Maya’s position as the champion of Dalits / Poor and propels her nationally vs Modi
  • Family feud and infighting in SP provides it an opportunity to project that BSP is better placed to defeat BJP
  • Poor law and order situation in the state, people still recall her tenure when she took on goondaraj (Ansari episode may dilute this a bit)
  • Garner support from upper castes who are unhappy with excessive OBC dominance in BJP
  • Consolidate Dalits-Muslim votebank accounting for 40% of population

THREAT

  • Alliance between SP-INC
  • Consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of SP-INC alliance
  • Loss of whatever upper caste votes BSP has to BJP
  • Loss of non-Jatav support to BJP
  • Public preference for same govt. in state and center
  • High popularity rating of Akhilesh vs Maya
  • Sympathy for Akhilesh in family feud and shift of focus away from shortcomings of his govt.

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