• mohd.shakib@smanik.com
  • January 29, 2017
rahul

STRENGTHS

  • Joker in the pack in a triangular contest
  • Old traditional base & Decent support among Upper Caste, Dalits and Muslims
  • With 6%-8% vote share, any party can’t defeat BJP without Congress support

WEAKNESS

  • Dearth of strong local leadership
  • Absence of even a single anchor voting segment unlike BSP (Dalits), SP (MY) and BJP (Upper Caste)
  • Rift between old guard and Prashant Kishore team wrt campaign strategy
  • Out of power since 1989 has led to demotivation amongst party cadre
  • Party unable to devise strategy to counter mandal and kamandal in the state

OPPORTUNITY

  • Improve performance by piggybacking on SP vote bank in line with good show in Bihar and WB
  • Revive traditional vote bank of Dalits-Muslims-Brahmins
  • Be part of a govt. in state after nearly 3 decades
  • Improved performance to help Congress bid for comeback in 2019
  • Able to stop BJP juggernaut in UP

THREAT

  • Alliance partner SP unable to transfer vote share to INC
  • Loss of upper caste votes to BJP due to alliance with SP
  • Loss of Dalit votes to BSP due to alliance with SP
  • Public preference for same govt. in state and center
  • BJP is able to form govt. in state and consolidate position nationally

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