Results to the 57 seats which went to polls today due to retirement of MPs have been declared. The results were more or less on expected lines as we had predicted in our post for DailyO more than two weeks ago.
Highlights of the Results
1. BJP & NDA gain
2. Congress & UPA lose
3. Congress still the largest party in Upper House
4. Biggest gainers – SP (14 to 18), BJP (49 to 51) and TRS & RJD (1 to 3)
5. Biggest losers – Congress (64 to 59), JDU (13 to 10) and BSP (10 to 6)
6. Money power lost cause in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh where independent candidates lost
7. Rebellion in Congress Haryana unit
8. House very evenly poised now
BJP swept Jharkhand and Rajasthan on expected lines bagging all 2 and 4 seats each. In UP, Kapil Sibal sailed through despite BJP backed independent candidate in the fray thanks to BSP. Congress gained in Karnataka and Uttarakhand. An independent backed by Congress won in MP while another lost in Rajasthan.
In Haryana, Congress MLAs defy high command order, deliberately make their votes invalid, leading to victory of BJP backed independent industrialist Mr. Subhash Chandra. He defeated INLD and Congress backed independent candidate and noted lawyer RK Anand. 14 out of 17 Congress votes were declared invalid. This reportedly has backing of former CM Hooda. Interesting to see if Congress high command takes action. This could lead to another split in Congress after Ajit Jogi left party in Chhattisgarh.
Elections had all the elements of a Bollywood drama, 2 JMM legislators were arrested night before polls. They did manage to vote though after court intervention. Independent candidates made elections interesting in UP, Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan and Haryana. They managed to win in 3 states while candies offered couldn’t get them seats in other two states.
BJP tally has increased from 49 to 51 while Congress tally has declined from 64 to 59. Including the nominated (9) and independent (3) supporting BJP, NDA tally is 84*. This is a tad lower than UPA tally of 86.
The anti-BJP camp consisting of SP, BSP, Left, INLD and JDS stay at previous levels of 35. Losses of BSP lapped up by SP. With polls due in UP next year, both SP & BSP will want to be seen clearly opposing BJP in the Parliament.
The neutral parties (AIADMK, TMC, BJD, TRS) have increased their tally from 34 to 37. These parties could support BJP on GST provided it wants to pass it before UP polls. Of course it won’t come for free and these regional parties will bargain hard for their demands.
Out of total strength of 245, 3 seats are currently empty (2 nominated members and 1 other seat). Out of current strength of 242, NDA has 84, UPA, 86, Anti-BJP parties 35 and Neutral parties 37. Including the support of neutral MPs, government has 121 on its side. Opposition strength is also same at 121. There is effectively a tie 121 each. Whenever the vacant 2 nominated members are appointed, BJP could inch marginally ahead.
Rajya Sabha Strength
Themes emerging from these elections:
1. Congress has one more state to worry about. Congress mukt Bharat will gain momentum if Hooda forms own party in Haryana.
2. Surplus BSP votes helped Congress win in MP, Uttarakhand and UP. This is indications of an alliance brewing between the two in UP. This could make matters difficult for BJP.
3. BJP gets a breather in RS. For the first time in past 2 years, BJP + Neutral parties (not aligned to Congress) tally is similar to anti-government strength in the house.
All in all good results for BJP. Congress has to grapple with rebellion in another state. Neutral parties now exceed anti-BJP parties’ strength and will play a key role in shaping future. BJP now needs to woo the two ladies – Mamata & Jaya and the two gentlemen – Naveen & KCR. Over to BJP floor managers now.
*Including Sambhaji Raje, a Descendant of Shivaji Nominated to Rajya Sabha today.
|Party||Pre-Elections||No. of MPs Retiring||No. of MPs re-elected||Current Position|
|Bhartiya Janata Party||49||15||17||51|
|Telugu Desam Party||6||2||3||7|
|People’s Democratic Party||2||2|
|Republican Party of India||1||1|
|Bodoland People’s Front||1||1|
|Sikkim Democratic Front||1||1|
|Naga People’s Front||1||1|
|Indian National Congress||64||13||8||59|
|Janata Dal United||13||5||2||10|
|Nationalist Congress Party||6||2||1||5|
|Rashtriya Janata Dal||1||2||3|
|Indian Union Muslim League||1||1|
|Jharkhand Mukti Morcha||1||1|
|Kerala Congress (M)||1||1|
|Bahujan Samaj Party||10||6||2||6|
|Indian National Lok Dal||1||1|
|Janata Dal Secular||1||1|
|Left (CPI + CPM)||9||9|
|Telangana Rashtriya Samiti||1||2||3|
|Biju janata Dal||7||2||3||8|