• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • April 18, 2014

Background

Voting for 121 seats finished yesterday (17th April) in Phase V of Lok Sabha polls. This is the biggest phase of polling accounting for 20% of Lok Sabha strength. 6 states went to polls – Maharashtra (19), Uttar Pradesh (11), Odisha (11), Rajasthan (20), Jharkhand (6), Bihar (7), J&K (1), Manipur (1), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (10), Chhatisgarh (3) and West Bengal (4).

2009 Election Results

The seat wise position in the last elections was as follows:

State Seats NDA UPA BJD JDU JDS SP BSP Left Others
Bihar 7 1 1   5          
Chhattisgarh 3 3                
J&K 1   1              
Jharkhand 6 4 1             1
Karnataka 28 19 6     3        
Madhya Pradesh 10 8 2              
Manipur 1   1              
Maharashtra 19 7 10             2
Odisha 11   1 9         1  
Rajasthan 20 4 16              
Uttar Pradesh 11 2 4       4 1    
West Bengal 4 1             3  
  121 49 43 9 5 3 4 1 4 3

The 2009 elections to these 121 seats were a very close finish: <1% victory margin (7 seats), 1-2% (8), 2-3% (5), 3-4% (10), 4-5% (9). 39 / 121 seats were decided on a victory margin of <5%. 

NDA won 49 seats and UPA 43 seats in 2009. NDA was runner up in 43 seats and in 13 of these seats it lost by <5% margin. These are the seats which it will be eyeing this time around.

Voting in Phase V

The voting % has been good this time – Maharashtra (61.7%), Rajasthan (63%), West Bengal (81.5%), Bihar (54%), Karnataka (61%), Chhattisgarh (63%),  J&K (69%), Madhya Pradesh (54%). Overall good numbers but much more is needed to get a clear mandate. Bangalore was a disappointment with only 50% voting. 

Politicalbaaba estimates

Of these 121 seats, NDA is expected to lose seats in Karnataka and gain heavily in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. In Odisha also it will be able to open account. It should be able to maintain its position in Chhatisgarh, Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. NDA expected to get ~70 seats and UPA ~40 seats. UPA’s loss in UP, Rajasthan & Maharashtra is expected to be made up partly by gains in Karnataka.

 

 

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Vijay Tiwari 2014-04-28 21:29:17/ Reply

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Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-19 10:49:29/ Reply

Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba.

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