• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • May 7, 2014

Background

Voting for 64 seats finished today (7th May) in Phase VIII (2nd Last Phase) of Lok Sabha polls. This is an important phase of polling accounting for 12% of Lok Sabha strength. 7 states went to polls – Uttar Pradesh (15), Bihar (7), J&K (2),West Bengal (6), Himachal Pradesh (4), Uttarakhand (5) and Seemandhra (25).

2009 Election Results

The seat wise position in the last elections was as follows:

State Seats NDA UPA Left TMC BSP SP JDU Others
Bihar 7 1 2         4  
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 1            
Jammu & Kashmir 2   1           1
Seemandhra 25 4 21            
Uttar Pradesh 15   7            
Uttarakhand 5   5     5 3    
West Bengal 6     6          
Total 64 8 37 6 0 5 3 4 1

UPA fared extremely well winning ~60% of the seats led by Seemandhra, UP and Uttarakhand. NDA won only 8 seats (including 4 of TDP which was not part of alliance then and joined only this year). This is compensated by 4 seats which JDU won and is currently shown separately as they have split. Left swept Bengal and Congress did much better than expected in UP, also sweeping neighbourhood Uttarakhand.

NDA was runner up in 27 seats, including TDP’s 17 in Seemandhra and in 5 of these seats it lost by <3% margin. These are the seats which it will be eyeing this time around.The 2009 elections to these 64 seats were a close finish: <1% victory margin (3 seats), 1-2% (7), 2-3% (4). 14 / 64 seats were decided on a victory margin of <3%.

Voting in Phase V

The voting % has been very strong this time, W. Bengal (80.5%), Bihar (56%), Seemandhra (76%), Uttar Pradesh (57.5%), Uttarakhand (62%), Himachal Pradesh (65%). 

Fortunes of star candidates Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), Ram Vilas Paswan (Hajipur), Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi (Saran) and Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) have been sealed today.

Politicalbaaba estimates

Of these 64 seats, UPA will be dealt a severe blow and will struggle to get over 5 seats (that too thanks to Lalu). In Seemandhra it will draw a blank, similar feat can be repeated in Himachal and Uttarakhand. Will be lucky to get more than 1 in UP (barring Amethi). Amethi also witnessing tough fight. Triangular contest (Cong vs BJP vs AAP) will help Rahul. Plus BJP announced their candidate Smriti Irani very late. Modi’s good rally will definitely give sleepless nights to Gandhi family. NDA is expected to sweep Uttarakhand and Himachal. In UP / Bihar NDA is expected to get ~50% of the seats. JDU will also be a big loser and will struggle to maintain its 2009 position.

Overall NDA may get close to UPA’s last year tally and UPA would struggle to get close to NDA’s last year tally. Fortunes reversed. In Seemandhra there is an interesting fight between Jagan Reddy (YSR Congress) and Chandra Babu Naidu (TDP which is part of NDA). They are likely to split honours.

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