• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • March 21, 2014

Politicalbaaba had estimated 220 seats for NDA on Jan.16, 2014 up from 205 projected in Sep. 2013, link below.

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-bjp-win/

Post the projections, new allies have joined NDA and BJP has announced its PM candidate will be fighting from Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh. These two factors are expected to increase NDA’s tally and take it closer to the half-way mark of 272.

New Allies:

(i) Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party joined NDA in Bihar. The party has good command over “Dusadh” community votebank with 6.75% vote share in last assembly elections. They have been given 7 seats out of 40. This tie up is expected to add another 4 seats to NDA tally.

(ii) PMK and DMDK two regional outfits in Tamil Nadu have joined alliance. Both Ramadoss and Vijaykanth have good clout in the state with DMDK emerging as the 2nd largest party behind AIADMK and ahead of DMK in the recently concluded state assembly polls. With Vaiko’s MDMK already in, the grand alliance is expected to bag 8 seats (+5 seats from last projections).

Modi’s candidature from Varanasi

BJP has announced that Modi will contest from Uttar Pradesh seat of Varanasi. UP sends the maximum MPs to Lok Sabha (80). This is likely to have a positive impact on 32 seats in Purvanchal, 16 seats in Avadh and 16 seats in Bihar (area in and around Varanasi). This is likley to add 8 seats to NDA’s kitty (38 vs 30 earlier).

Some other minor adjustments have been made to the numbers and NDA is now expected to win 230 seats as per Politicalbaaba, up from 220 projected in Jan. 2014.

The NDA could on its own win 250+ seats as Modi wave nears the polling dates. What is holding me back is the fact that there is a lot of internal fighting within BJP which could harm its prospects. Internal dissidence and internal sabotage by group opposing Modi would cost it dear. Plus BJP has lately been admitting all and sundry into the party (Ram Kirpal Yadav in Bihar, Jagdambika Pal in UP, Rao Inderjit Singh in Gurgaon etc.), this has not gone down with sections of party cadre and they are accusing party of giving tickets to outsiders. This will hamper NDA’s chances. Drama over Advani’s insistence to fight from Bhopal and later being coaxed to fight from Gandhinagar proves this point that all is not well within the party.

The fact that BJP tried to cosy upto Raj Thackeray’s party while having an official alliance with his cousin Uddhav’s party Shiv Sena has not gone well with the partner. This could hamper chances in Maharashtra.

State / UT Seats 1999 2009 2014
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 0 1
Assam 14 2 4 4
Bihar 40 23 12 20
Jharkhand 14 8 8
Goa 2 2 1 2
Gujarat 26 20 15 21
Haryana 10 5 0 5
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 3 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 2 0 1
Karnataka 28 7 19 14
Kerala 20 0 0 1
Madhya Pradesh 29 29 6 23
Chattisgarh 11 10 8
Maharashtra 48 28 20 28
Manipur 2 0 0 0
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0
Mizoram 1 0 0 0
Nagaland 1 0 0 0
Orissa 21 9 0 2
Punjab 13 3 5 9
Rajasthan 25 16 4 20
Sikkim 1 0 0 0
Seemandhra 25 7 0 0
Telangana 17 3
Tamil Nadu 39 4 0 8
Tripura 2 0 0 0
UP 80 29 10 38
Uttarakhand 5 0 4
West Bengal 42 2 1 1
Andaman 1 1 1 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1 1
Delhi 7 7 0 3
Pondicherry 1 0 0 0
Lakshadweep 1 0 0 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0
Total 543 199 121 230

Poll

 

Comments

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-03 10:33:06/ Reply

Pls participate in all questions to increase your chances of winning. http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/quiz-contest/ Q. no.1-5 under Quiz Contest Tab.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-03 10:32:36/ Reply

Pls participate in all questions to increase your chances of winning. http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/quiz-contest/ Q. no.1-5 under Quiz Contest Tab.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-03 09:38:35/ Reply

Pls email your home / office address if ok. I have to send you something.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-26 09:23:26/ Reply

Thanks this is very broad, I will reconcile this with my info. / sources and update on 29th evening as I am away for a few days. This is what am upto if you have not already seen. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BzkrVZdhLG_0d2tLVkpZSVRKSnM/edit?pli=1 Also pls participate in contest on the blog.

Anand

Anand 2014-04-26 09:18:25/ Reply

Tami Nadu Election Projections : http://centreright.in/2014/04/analysis-predictions-for-tn-ls-2014-polls/#.U1ssYMfleuo

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-26 09:14:33/ Reply

Thanks will use this in my post poll predictions.

Anand

Anand 2014-04-26 09:10:42/ Reply

http://www.gulte.com/news/26477/District-Wise-Survey-TDP-sets-for-Clean-Sweep

Anand

Anand 2014-04-26 09:08:55/ Reply

http://jobsplazza.com/news-lagadapati-rajagopal-election-survey-2014-tdp-114-assembly-seats-in-seemandhra/ (Lagadapati Rajagopal) has predicted a huge lift for TDP in assembly polls

Anand

Anand 2014-04-26 09:04:26/ Reply

We are underestimating BJP on following states Orissa and Assam (Could add 4-5 seats more). Andhra Pradesh (TDP - 18-21and 3 for BJP in telangana) - Total of 21-24 seats in Andhra Pradesh West Bengal - 1- 3 (BJP can win 2 more seats than previous time) Tamil Nadu - 8-12 seats is a Possibility. Puducherrry (1 seat can be won by PMK). Bihar - 15-18 seats and not 20. Mostly less than 18. Uttar Pradesh - 30-35 seats and not more than that. 19 seats BJP lost in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh would be compensated by TN, Andhra Pradesh, Assam , Orissa and West Bengal. If Maharashtra is prediction is correct, except for MUMBAI and PUNE seats where 1 Lakh voters of BJP and Shiv Sena has been deleted. Should be a close fight for MUmbai and Pune seats and BJP/SS can loose of because of not having this additional votes. So we might have to reduce 3-4 from Maharashtra. More likely either DMK (10 seats) or even AIADMK (18 seats) can support BJP from outside is a possibility as DMK is harrassed by congress on 2G scam. AIADMK Jaya will support BJP if the 3rd front formation is going to be tough. I would say that BJD would support BJP as they have not opposed supporting MODI vehemently like other parties like BSP, SP, TRS etc. So I feel that NDA should get 250 with 22 short of majority that can be given by AIADMK, BJD , JMM and independents.

Rakesh

Rakesh 2014-04-23 22:38:56/ Reply

Hindus deserve it..

Rakesh

Rakesh 2014-04-23 22:37:33/ Reply

I am confident that by 2041 India will be an Islamic country or will be squeezed into the size of Sri Lanka's size .

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-19 09:53:46/ Reply

And Assam also seat by seat for polls already held.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-18 20:03:10/ Reply

Ok gr8.

Venkat Gandhi

Venkat Gandhi 2014-04-18 19:58:08/ Reply

Telangana

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-18 19:52:52/ Reply

My estimate is 230 for Nda + 10 of TDP = 240. Agree with you! Which state do you belong to I will need your help after polls? Thanks

Venkat Gandhi

Venkat Gandhi 2014-04-18 19:37:43/ Reply

I still feel BJP's Range is 180~220 With high probability 200~210 All numbers seem to have about 10% overestimate as a strong BJP supporter.. I give 200-210 for BJP Rest 24 allies ! can at best get 35 Seats ! NDA Range is 200-250 Crossing 220 for BJP and 250 for NDA is Miracle ..

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-18 18:25:47/ Reply

What's your view on the 4 seats which have already gone to polls seat wise?

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-11 10:57:32/ Reply

Did u read my interview in the guardian?

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-04-11 10:55:14/ Reply

admin 2004 was diff bjp was in power for 6 yrs and effect guj riots that dent bjp badly in south.- but this time situation diff - ur good political man u understand better than me- cong in power for 10 yrs add with huge anti-incumbency- look at haryana 73% polling after 1977 haryana never see this type of polling - up voter turn out bump up by 15% that is huge- just wait watch bjp will touch 240 on its own. add assam voter turn out 77% last time this type of turn out shows when agp form on 1980s and fight assembly election in assam

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-08 12:25:31/ Reply

Opinion polls are not always correct. In 2004 they gave 271 seats to NDA and it got 181 only. Pls see my blog on Opinion Polls. Everything will be clear on 16th.

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-04-08 12:10:49/ Reply

Why do we talk of tactical voting too much last time bjp had only 18 % votes so it was issue but in december assambly and yesterday poll voting was 70+ % everywhere in such conditions high votiong will cancel minority vote in all contiueny where bjp will have 30-35 % vote min.. ,in multi cornered contest .. As per all opiniön pool and condition visible bjp have 36-39% votes of total in its side .i am confident of it

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-07 22:52:30/ Reply

Minorities could vote tactically to defeat BJP.

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-04-07 21:25:11/ Reply

Bjp ruffly has baking of 5 % muslims 20 % dalit 30% obc ie, yadav 7o% upper caste ie about 40% of total votes how can we ignore chances of bjp winning big in up bihar bjp this time can win all seats in up exect about 20 seats in up where yadavs +dalit + muslims =75 -85 % votes (unfortunatly like my own contituency barabanky where muslim+ yadavs +dalit - 85% votes) in all other 60 seats bjp ll win atleast 50 damnsure s b

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-07 21:18:50/ Reply

Thanks Kanhaiyaji! Let see. My estimate 58.

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-04-07 20:41:25/ Reply

I can bet that up bihar ll surly give 75+ seats to bjp

Jay

Jay 2014-04-07 16:38:48/ Reply

I am not greedy. My wish is BJP alone should get 230. Then TDP, DMDK, MMDK, SHIV SENA, SDP can pool another 45 SEATs. Additionally, they can buy another 5-10 independents. In such a situation they do not need Jayalalitha. Holding 230 for BJP alone will not be a tough task for them to sail through. But their worry is how to keep third Front + Congress away from forming the government. We cannot say if the so-called third front (150) + congress (100) try their pitch to form the government, then BJP would be forced to step back.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-05 14:39:24/ Reply

225 won't allow Modi to do what he wants and will result in unstable govt. Modi would not like blackmail from smaller parties.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-05 14:38:31/ Reply

Thanks Jay for your valuable feedback.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-05 14:37:27/ Reply

Agreed I am currently projecting 38 in UP and 20 in Bihar. I am saying "IF", a big "IF" though!

Jay

Jay 2014-04-05 14:31:09/ Reply

NDA 300 IS A SHEAR DREAM. IF IT GETS 220-240 IT IS VERY GOOD TO KEEP EVERYONE AT BAY.

Jay

Jay 2014-04-05 14:29:54/ Reply

NO DOUBT. BJP IS WORKING HARD. NAMO IS VERY MATURED AND NEVER ALLOWED TO SLIP HIS TONGUE LIKE OTHERS IN BJP OR OTHER LEADERS. YOU SEE, FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, THE WHOLE INDIA, ALL POLITICAL PARITES PARTIES, EVEN SHIV SEN, EXCEPT SAD ATTACHING HIM IN A HOSTILE MANNER. NOT ONLY THAT WITHIN THE PARTY HOW MUCH PRESSURE, HOW MUCH ATTACK HE HAD FROM SUSHMA, ADVANI, JASWANT SINGH, GADKARI, FROM RSS, ETC. HE HAS OVER COME ALL THOSE THINGS, TOLERATED EVERYTHING NEVER LOST HIS TEMPER. HIS (maqsat) OBJECTIVE TO BE AT THE TOP TO CONTROL INDIA, TO SAFE INDIA, TO DEVELOP INDIA. 2000 MUSLIMS HAVE BEEN KILLED AND EVERY DAY THERE IS A TALK ABOUT THIS. DID ANYBODY TALK ABOUT THE 68 HINDUS. WHO PROVOKED THE VIOLENCE FIRST IN GODHRA? I REPEAT, TO MY KNOWLEDGE AFTER INDEPENDENCE, NO OTHER POLITICIAN HAS BEEN SO MUCH ATTACKED FROM OUTSIDE AND WITHIN BJP. EVEN INDIRA GANDHI WAS NOT ATTACKED LIKE THIS FOR HER EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE HISTORY. NAMO PATIENCE HAS BEEN TESTED FAR FROM NORMAL TESTING PARAMETERS.

Jay

Jay 2014-04-05 14:21:30/ Reply

GOOD. I WISH EVEN IF BJP ALONE GET 225 SEATS ENOUGH. THEY CAN COBBLE-UP WITH AIADMK, MNS, TDP AND CAN DEFINITELY CROSS 275 WITH THEIR HELP AND BUY SOME INDEPENDENTS OF 10.

Jay

Jay 2014-04-05 14:17:54/ Reply

BJP Cannot get more than 35 seats in UP and 20 seats from Bihar. 75-80 is only a dream,. Mark my words.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-04-05 11:24:42/ Reply

Pls see revised. NDA 7, UPA 6. AAP could win Ludhiana. http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/all-india-projections-revised/

mmanudhaliwal

mmanudhaliwal 2014-04-05 11:10:41/ Reply

Sir i think your projection for punjab is wrong pls rply

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-03-30 14:56:26/ Reply

quite agree with u - good prediction- bjp need to work hard fr last 1 month - if they work hard - they alone can get this seats . up -45 bih-25 jhk-10 chht-10 raj-22 guj-22 mad-26 kar-16 tam-3 ap-2 wb-2 mah-18 del-5 har-6 utta-5 him-4 pun-2 assm-4 ori-3 jammu-2 goa-2 arun/man- 1+1 =2 unt- 4 including chandigarh. total- 240 (bjp alone) but fr that they need to work hard- finger crossed.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-24 20:30:35/ Reply

Thanks Mumbai. 300 looks difficult at this stage. However impossible is possible in politics.

Mumbai

Mumbai 2014-03-24 18:10:31/ Reply

NDA will get near to 300. from the North, central and western part of india NDA will get atleast 80% of seats.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-23 09:57:28/ Reply

Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba.

SachinManan

SachinManan 2014-03-22 09:07:12/ Reply

Interesting read http://sachinmanan.wordpress.com/

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-21 18:36:41/ Reply

Thanks Vivek. If you look at the allies formation and Modi wave stage is set for 250 seats or so. However internal fighting held me to make that projection. 245 to be precise. Let's see! Keep reading participate in polls and help me to popularise the blog among your friends and family.

Vivek

Vivek 2014-03-21 18:25:40/ Reply

I wish and pray for BJP to lead the nation atleast for the next 5 years to bail us out from the crooked non secular parties. But the BJP’s internal happenings are not impressive. Especially with old patrons – like Advaniji, Sushma Swaraj-ji, Murali Manohar Joshi - ji. Some of the issues should be discussed - off the screen and ironed out when we are targeting something big and need of the time. I am worried to see the things are happening and the way it is been handled. All the last six month’s efforts are seem to be squared off because of the last minute street fights. I started doubting the 200 mark.

2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP win? | Politicalbaaba

2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP win? | Politicalbaaba 2014-03-21 16:55:11/ Reply

[…] http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/how-many-seats-will-bjp-get-revised/ […]

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-21 15:50:51/ Reply

Kanhaiyaji request you to recommend the blog to your friends and families. Thanks

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-21 15:40:00/ Reply

Very true. Minority will vote tactically to defeat BJP and infighting in BJP will also hamper it's prospects.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-21 15:37:45/ Reply

TDP is not yet finalised anyways I have included it under "Who will form the government?" with NDA. TDP as per me will get 10 seats.

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-03-21 15:37:34/ Reply

If up bihar gives 75-80 seats nda ll not need anyone else other than above mentioned parties to form govnment but how can caste factor and tatical voting of minority be under estimated till vote reaches 70+ % ie very high voting of upper caste though it is quite possible due to high anger of people for sp,bsp,cong

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-21 15:34:29/ Reply

Thanks Kanhaiyaj.

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-03-21 15:18:16/ Reply

Alliance with tdp demn sure so i shall advise u to include tdp to nda atleast another 15 seat nda there becase history shows people of andra go with possible government so ysr ll not get more than 10 seat

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-03-21 14:48:11/ Reply

Its ok with this projection but i shall still only call it safe projection

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