• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • May 16, 2014

BJP led NDA has secured absolute majority 336 / 543 in 16th Lok Sabha.  Not only this, BJP has also secured majority on its own (282). For the first time in 30 years after 1984, a party / alliance has got absolute majority. This is very good news for India and will take us beyond the shaky coalition era. Also its the first time that a non- Congress party has secured majority in Lok Sabha elections. Janata Party did get majority in 1977 after emergency but it was a coalition / umbrella where several parties joined to take on Indira just before the elections.

The mandate has stunned political pundits, while all of them predicted a NDA win or near win, nobody except for Today’s Chanakya predicted that NDA would get ~340 seats. Politicalbaaba estimated 266 seats for NDA. Where it went wrong will be analysed in detail in another post. However, I had said that if BJP gets <220 no Modi wave, 220-250 Modi wave, 250-280 Modi frenzy, 280+ Modi tsunami. It seems there was a tsunami.

The stupendous performance an be attributed to only one man – Modi. From the day he was appointed BJP Chief of Election Campaign to PM candidate the man has worked very hard. Attending 400+ rallies, criss-crossing entire India, visiting 25 states, delivering thundering speeches, drawing massive crowds.

From Kashmir to Kanyakumari this man was seen as one who could take India to new heights and solve it of all its evils. People voted for Modi irrespective of the background of local candidate. BJP and Modi fought Presidential style elections and the first time in Indian politics after Indira Gandhi, people voted on the basis of personality.

He has re-defined Indian political landscape and electioneering forever. Case studies can be made on his campaign. Use of high tech media, social media, strategically targeting youth power and raising issue of development.

TINA factor worked well for him as there was no competition. No other party declared a PM candidate, except for AIADMK (but it was a state party). Ruling party Congress was afraid of pitting Rahul against Modi. Strong anti incumbency wave against 10 years of UPA rule plus good governance model of Gujarat was played to the hilt by Modi to succeed. Even in UP and Bihar which are drenched deep in caste based politics and where minority community has size able population, BJP+ won 103 / 120 seats. This re-instates success of Modi formula of development.

Now starts the tougher journey for Modi, expectations are high, people want him to solve problems of plenty – inflation, low growth, unemployment etc. People are also impatient and would want to see results soon. Let’s see whether he can keep up on his promises. All the best Modi, all the best India, all the best Indians……

For All India Results Partywise please see: http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/elections-2014/all-india-2014-results-partywise/

Related post: Campaign Style of Top 3 Guns: http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/indiapoliticswatch/how-the-top-guns-modi-rahul-and-kejriwal-campaign/article1-1218076.aspx

 

 

 

 

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This Day, That Year, India was Modified | Politicalbaaba 2015-05-17 20:22:22/ Reply

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patadiyadharmesh 2014-05-19 18:31:30/ Reply

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Politicalbaaba 2014-05-19 07:39:58/ Reply

Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba and commented:

India gets Modi-fied!

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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/17/mr-politically-correct-obama-meet-your-opposite-india-s-mr-modi.html

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Mr. Modi spoke truth to power for the people of India, and they chose to reward him with a landslide vote. Today there is hope in the hearts of ordinary Indians for a better life. God bless Mr. Modi and God bless incredible India!

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colossal victory......God Bless NAMO and God Bless India....

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Did they all formally merge and call themselves "Janata Party" before the elections? If they became a unified entity, contested on a single symbol and won almost 350 seats, then we can't really say this is the first time a non-Congress party has won a majority on its own. http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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Haryana News 2014-05-17 16:05:51/ Reply

BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi led NDA to be winner in Lok Sabha election 2014, And BJP won with massive voter against Congress.

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Politicalbaaba 2014-05-17 09:20:08/ Reply

Janata Party was an umbrella coalition of Lok Dal, Swatantra Party, Jan Sangh (now BJP), Morarji Desai faction ofCongress and others. They all fought under Lok Dal symbol.

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Today's Chanakya seems to have found the secret formula for making very accurate vote-to-seat conversions, something most pollsters struggle with. Plus, they report whatever they find, instead of tempering it to produce a more "believable" figure. This takes courage. But after their near-exact predictions based on the 2009 Lok Sabha exit poll, 2013 Delhi Assembly exit poll, and now the 2014 Lok Sabha exit poll, I will trust their numbers no matter how wild they sound. http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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desipoliticaljunkie 2014-05-17 04:01:45/ Reply

Amen. The voters have made their preference loud and clear. No ambiguity or indecision in this verdict. The Modi wave ensured that BJP could optimize its strike rate in its strongholds like Delhi, MP, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand, Goa and HP, where it won almost every seat. It also helped it sweep states where it had a strong presence but had been previously unable to jump the last hurdles like Maharasthra and Bihar, and ensured the quick reversal of its fortunes in Karnataka, where it was almost wiped out just a year ago. The 25% swing in its favor in UP is nothing short of miraculous. All this gave BJP a simple majority of its own and a nearly two-thirds majority for NDA. But when the euphoria has died down, the party will have to introspect as to why it was unable to become the number two party in Odisha (where Congress proved surprisingly resilient, with the split in opposition votes helped BJD sweep), and why it could not meet expectations and give the Left real competition for the number two spot in West Bengal. It improved vote share and won a handful of new seats in both states, but was unable to expand in them to the degree that was anticipated. In Tamil Nadu, winning Kanyakumari was the fulfillment of a long-cherished dream for BJP, but NDA did not really take off there as was expected. Clearly the Modi wave had its limitations. This was the single most exciting election in recent Indian political history. A paradigm shift unthinkable even six months ago. Is anyone else feeling post-election blues? http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

Anand

Anand 2014-05-16 22:23:54/ Reply

Amazed with the total # of Chanakya. Also their UP and Bihar numbers were close. Jayalalitha Tsunami swept TN.

Kanhaiya

Kanhaiya 2014-05-16 21:30:04/ Reply

Truly domocracy has won and sudo secularism has learnt a lession

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-16 16:59:48/ Reply

Yes spot on. The winner is also India democratic process.

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Today's Chanakya was the closest exit pollster once again; they overestimated BJP/NDA in Odisha, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, and underestimated them in Maharashtra, but in the end got the national picture nearly exactly right. Their UP predictions, in particular, were gutsy but turned out to be spot on. They're the other big winners today. http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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Kanhaiya 2014-05-16 13:23:33/ Reply

Congrates

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