• mohd.shakib@smanik.com
  • October 29, 2015

5 Key Messages
1. Elections are damn close, it will go down to each vote in the end.
2. No clear visible wave on the ground.
3. Exit polls will not give a clear picture until and unless sample taken from each booth. A single booth can determine the results.
4. Youth, women & undecided voters to decide the winner.
5. Rebels won’t win many seats but capable of sinking the ship of either alliance in many seats.

Phase 3 Post Poll Update
Phase 3 of the fiercely fought Bihar elections concluded yesterday. Polls were held on 50 seats covering six districts of Bhojpur, Buxar, Nalanda, Patna, Vaishali and Saran. Janata alliance (Maha Gathbandhan) won 30 of these seats in 2010 (albeit fighting separately) while NDA won 20. In LS polls in 2014, Janata alliance was leading in 28 seats while NDA in 22.

It’s a very closely fought elections with no super turnout and no clear wave on ground. Only the two alliances see a wave with both claiming to have got unbeatable leads till Phase 3 (90+ seats). Only one of them can be correct not both as elections to only 131 seats have taken place.

In Phase 3, Gathbandhan is facing serious rebels / cross over candidates in 20 / 50 seats (that’s huge). NDA faced rebels in 4 seats. In 28 of the seats Janata alliance was leading in LS polls, it was facing rebellion in half of these seats. In 11 of the seats Janata alliance was leading comfortably in LS polls (>10% vote share), here again, it was facing rebels in 5 of these seats. In 1 of the seats, though no official rebel, NDA is facing serious dissidence (Barhampur). This could be the decider in this phase and seems to have saved the day for NDA.

Prominent rebels / cross over candidates which are causing serious head ache for Janata alliance candidates are – Gita Pandey (Tarari), Anant Singh (Mokama), Chhotelal Rai (Parsa), Dr. Sunil Kushwaha (Biharsharif), Satish Kr Yadav (Raghopur), Brishan Patel (Vaishali), Gyanendra Kr. Singh (Barh), Ravindra Rai (Mahua), Dr. Daud Ali (Dumraon).

Based on ground feedback and research, NDA is expected to do well in Buxar, Bhojpur, Vaishali and urban parts of Patna district. Gathbandhan is expected to do well in Nalanda (Nitish), Saran (Lalu) and rural (Lalu).

While twitter and social media is agog with NDA sweep with 40+ seats in this phase, this may not be the actual case. NDA is leading in this phase clearly like Phase 2, but by how much is a point of contention which will be known only on 8th Nov. 2015.

Politicalbaaba (PB) predicts 27-33 seats for NDA and 16-22 seats for Janata alliance as detailed in table below. An independent is expected to win 1 seat. People would like to know about the fate of Lalu’s two sons. They are both engaged in a tough battle with sitting MLAs. The more firebrand younger son expected to win. The elder son is expected to lose.

2

Phase 1-3 Combined Scene

Based on all the three phases together, NDA is expected to have taken a slight lead from Janata alliance (9 seats). This will be further strengthened in Phase IV where it is expected to win 38 / 55 seats extending the lead to 26 seats. In Phase 5, Janata alliance has to then chase down this lead and keep NDA below 15 seats to win the match. A close nail biting finish on the cards….

1
*Worst Case & Best Case from NDA point of view.

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Curtains to Extensive Coverage of Bihar Elections | Politicalbaaba

Curtains to Extensive Coverage of Bihar Elections | Politicalbaaba 2015-12-01 14:31:38/ Reply

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Curtains to Extensive Coverage of #BiharElections | Politicalbaaba

Curtains to Extensive Coverage of #BiharElections | Politicalbaaba 2015-12-01 13:38:44/ Reply

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Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-30 10:50:07/ Reply

Agreed if I recall well BJP won 13 / 24 Muslim dominated seats last time. Plus AIMIM in 6 seats. Plus many of these 24 seats have multiple Muslim candidates. Lets see its a cracker. Close contest.

aniket

aniket 2015-10-30 08:32:46/ Reply

Ok...yes muslim dominance is there but its limited to 22-24 seats out of 57 in phase 5..remaining seats like purnia,madhepura,darbhanga have strong upper caste and mahadalit presence and pappu yadav is biggest factor which will split MGB votes...so NDa has edge over that...you can go on below link to check a pre poll assesment...also I remember India news was giving similar kind of analysis just before election http://www.pradhanmantriyojana.in/bihar-election-chunav-survey-opinion-poll-results-final-news/

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-30 00:54:22/ Reply

Phase V after Phase V now only till Phase III

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-30 00:53:55/ Reply

Yes that's true. Thanks

krishna prasad

krishna prasad 2015-10-29 22:31:51/ Reply

But, during third phase we could see a resurged NDA side under Modi-Shah-Sangh Team... I believe, NDA have done good in Phase 1, better in Phase 2 and much better in Phase 3. Expected to do the best in Phase 4 and as expected in Phase 5

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-29 20:37:16/ Reply

Agree its very close thats what i am saying too!

Sekar

Sekar 2015-10-29 19:36:08/ Reply

Phase V polls

Vijay

Vijay 2015-10-29 18:13:51/ Reply

Sir , as a neutral observer one can see greater enthu by Lalloo and crwod enthu for Lalloo this time vis a vis LS Elections. There seems to be less enthu among BJP workers too. Not to be missed is the statements by Amit Shah/jaitley that state elections are not a referndum. Similar statements came in the last days of campaign for Delhi elections. based on this my gut tells me that NDA will lose quite badly , though I am no fan of Lalloo !!!!!.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-29 18:07:59/ Reply

15 is enough! They can win 15-20. Thanks guys! Participate in quiz contest on blog to win prizes!

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-29 18:06:56/ Reply

Possible! My pre poll numbers were 123-147 depending upon wave!

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-29 18:04:03/ Reply

Thanks Aniket. Could be possible. Agree 1 son winning and 1 losing!

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2015-10-29 18:01:08/ Reply

Phase V or Phase III?

Sekar

Sekar 2015-10-29 17:50:36/ Reply

Winning 32 in phase V is tough for NDA due to Muslim dominance in many constituency. What is Political baaba view?

Aniket

Aniket 2015-10-29 17:44:47/ Reply

As per opinion poll just before election Add 30 for phase 4(NDA) and 32 for phase 5(NDA) 22(MGB)phase 4 and 24(MGB)phase 5 Total:NDA-131 MGB-106

Aniket

Aniket 2015-10-29 17:38:33/ Reply

I think in Saran NDA would have performed much well...Tejsavi will surely win and tejpratap is going to loose

Sekar

Sekar 2015-10-29 17:11:56/ Reply

who will be in leading based on your analysis after end of Phase V?

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