• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • March 12, 2014

Background

Adam Aadmi Party (AAP), a newbie in national politics, was formed out of the India Against Corruption (IAC) movement of Anna Hazare. One section led by Arvind Kejriwal, felt that to fight the political system one has to get into the system and hence formed a political party and named it AAP. The party focused its efforts on Delhi state assembly election which took place in December 2013. Kejriwal carried his RTI movement in Delhi and IAC received a lot of support from the people in the capital. Shiela Dixit was in power for 15 years, UPA for the past 10 years at the center resulting into huge anti-incumbency wave. Corruption scams like 2G scam, Coal scam, Commonwealth scam dented the image of state as well as central Congress governments. Persistent inflation plus deteriorating law and order situation in Delhi also helped AAP chances.

The party was able to convince people that Congress = BJP and positioned itself as a viable alternative. Door to door campaigning, innovative process for selection of candidates, transparent funding plus involving public in major decisions helped the party to capture imagination of the people. The party proved all pundits (including Politicalbaaba wrong) by winning 28 seats marginally behind BJP at 32. With a hung assembly and BJP deciding to opt out of govt. formation race, AAP was invited to form govt. Congress who wanted to stop BJP at any cost pledged outside support to AAP.

AAP ran SMS campaign to elicit public opinion whether to form govt with Congress support whom it had opposed tooth and nail during campaign. Ultimately it claimed people wanted it to form govt. and Aam Aadmi Arvind Kejriwal became CM of Delhi. The party had a controversial 49 day tenure where it fulfilled some poll promises like free water, lower power bills etc. with some riders. Binny a MLA accused Kejriwal of not fulfilling poll promises whereas Law Minister Bharti was involved in a racial abuse allegation and tiff with Delhi Police. Kejriwal finally resigned as his pet Jan Lokpal Bill was rejected in assembly. Real reason being he wanted to focus on Lok Sabha polls and take a shot at Prime Minister post.

Election Symbol

Prospects in 2014 Lok Sabha

The company proposes to fight on 350-400 seats in Lok Sabha. It is banking on apathy of people towards entire political class. Polls predict 5-10 seats for AAP. Politicalbaaba estimates 11 seats for AAP. The party cannot be taken lightly though and has potential to surprise on the upside. It will put up credible honest candidates against corrupt MPs / leaders and will make the elections interesting. However, their own credibility has suffered in recent times due to controverises and it remains to be seen if they can maintain momentum.

Comments

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Vijay Tiwari

Vijay Tiwari 2014-03-13 11:52:13/ Reply

Perfect analysis......I feel AAP will snatch more than 11 seats in forthcoming LS polls.....But I end by saying AAP is not healthy for our country as they don't have the sane attitude to put things in right direction....These guys are turning hooligans and trying to destroy peace in our country.....

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-13 06:01:31/ Reply

Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-03-12 16:49:14/ Reply

Thanks Ramesh. As I have mentioned earlier as well your accusation is unfounded. I don't think you read the article I wrote on the day Kejri became CM. I have said that the party has done some good things will include some missing points like launch of anti corruption hotline and gov schools. Ordering a CAG probe is not enuf, the govt. is not there to see it through. As regards ending VIP culture I don't agree with that. I welcome you to write an article on AAP and I will publish it under Readers corner.

rameshkr10

rameshkr10 2014-03-12 16:28:19/ Reply

The article is quite biased against AAP, as were the articles pre-Delhi elections. The article has a negative and biased tone through out. And it does not enumerate all the good things that AAP did in its 49 days stint. e.g. 1) Ordering the CAG audit of discoms which Sheila Government has been dilly dallying saying it is stayed by court and BJP were mum for very obvious reasons 2) Launch of anti-corruption hot line which actually had a positive effect on the government offices working culture and was able to control corruption to big extent. The corruption and inefficiency at government offices is a major issue for AAM AADMI, who can't afford to pay huge bribes for sth which he is supposed to get without paying bribes 3) Assessing the collecting information on the deficiencies/requirements of all gov schools in Delhi, so that it can be taken care of 4) Ending the VIP culture, and so on. The biased opinion of the author prevents him from looking at the positive things. Very unfortunate...

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