• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • May 4, 2014

Background

Elections from Phase I to Phase VII have been completed. 438 seats (81% of Lok Sabha strength) have gone to polls. Politicalbaaba undertakes a never attempted before in Indian history of polls coverage, a seat by seat predictions, based on on-ground information from its sources. A margin of error of 5-10% is possible.

2009 Results

UPA was ahead with 189 seats with NDA second at 125 seats in 2009. UPA did well in Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Haryana while NDA did well in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Karnataka.

2014 Elections

1. Bihar (27 seats): Bihar is witnessing complete polarization of MY votes for Lalu and Congress (UPA). The state has always voted on caste based factors but MY is voting en-block this time for Lalu. MY sees Nitish not competent enough to fight Modi and hence voting for Lalu. There is a Modi wave but seat wise caste dynamics are also playing a key role. NDA 9, UPA 7, Close Contest 10 and JDU 1.

2. Delhi (7 seats): Delhi is the trickiest. Triangular contest makes it difficult to predict. AAP has lost some ground, but its their karmabhoomi. Congress has won some lost ground. BJP is strong but candidate selection not great. Sandeep Dikshit, Ajay Maken, JP Agarwal have one good work but Shiela Dixit also did good work and still lost. So that’s not a criteria. 2 candidates of BJP – Manoj Tiwary and Udit Raj are facing outsider tag issues. Harshvardhan may benefit from split in Mulsim votes between Ashutosh and Sibal. Mahesh Giri has Sri Ravishankar’s machinery working for him. Ajay Maken may win because of his clean image and good work. All seats are being keenly contested. I would not put my neck out on Delhi.

3. Haryana (10 seats): Modi wave and anti incumbency against Congress is working here. UPA will retain only one seat Rohtak (candidate CM’s son). Naveen Jindal expected to lose. NDA expected to win 6 seats (Ambala, Sonipat, Sirsa, Bhiwani, Karnal, Faridabad). Indain National Lok Dal is winning 2 seats (Kurukshetra and Hisar). These is a tough fight between BJP and INLD in Gurgaon. BJP 6, UPA 1, INLD 2, Close fight 1.

4. Jharkhand (10 seats): NDA doing well here. Clearly winning 8 seats. Existing MP R. Pandey of BJP might lose from Giridh and S.K. Sahay of Congress might lose from Ranchi. BJP 8, UPA 1, Close fight 5. Lalu has teamed up with Shibu Soren (JMM) and Congress. MY combination voting en-block for this combine similarly as in Bihar. Adivasi votes though are divided. This helping BJP.

5. Orissa (21 seats): Here is a clear Modi wave, not a wave, a tornado. Despite no local leadership / organization, BJP is expected to do very well. Could even emerge as the largest party in Lok Sabha. People don’t want a Third Front govt. and are voting for Naveen Patnaik in the state assembly polls and Modi in the Lok Sabha polls. There is a close fight in Kalahandi, Cuttack and Bhibaneshwar. If Modi would have done more rallies, BJP could have got more seats. BJP 8, Biju Janata Dal 7, Congress 3, Close fight 3. State would show the nation what is the difference between state and national polls.

6. Uttar Pradesh (47 seats): Seats which have completed polls are in Western UP, NCR (near Delhi) and Central UP. Jats have a sizeable population in Western UP, traditional supporters of Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh), this time they are voting for BJP. Strong polarization is visible and Muslims mostly voting en-block to defeat BJP candidates. Situation similar to Bihar, Yadav vote divided here though and not going to Mulayam en-block. Advantage for BJP here is that there are many claimants to defeat BJP in UP unlike Bihar where there is only Lalu. Here BSP, SP, Congress all claim to defeat Modi. Muslims will vote for strongest candidate on a seat by seat basis, but it is not perfect science. They will definitely err on judgement on some seats and disagreements will lead to some split as well. This is key state to BJP. This will make or break Modi’s dreams. BJP expected to win half of the seats which went to polls. Ajit Singh may lose from Baghpat. General V.K. Singh is facing a tough fight but may sneak in. BJP 23, Close contest 15, SP 5, UPA 1 & BSP 4.

7. Karnataka (28 seats): Karnataka has been voting for the state govt. party for the past 15 years. It always votes for party which doesn’t end up forming govt. at the center. By this logic UPA should be doing well. Return of Yeddyurappa has strengthened BJP and prevented it from getting decimated. AAP has made the Bangalore seats fight interesting. 4 seats in 2009 were decided on a victory margin of <8,000 votes. All of these along with Bangalore South and Davangere are witnessing close contest. UPA 9, NDA 9, JD(S) 1 and close contests 9.

8. Madhya Pradesh (29 seats): There is a clear BJP / Modi wave here. Good work done by state CM S.S. Chouhan will help BJP. But this is not Rajasthan. So there will not be a clean sweep. Apart from its traditional seats of Guna and Chhindwara, UPA will bag a few more. NDA 21, UPA 7 and BSP 1.

9. Rajasthan (25 seats): In Rajasthan, wave is not the correct word. There is Modi frenzy. Complete sweep, RSS has full capture of all booths, even Congress MLAs voting for Modi. Apart from Churu (candidate issues where BSP is expected to win), BJP will sweep all seats. There is a close fight in Dausa and Udaipur though. NDA 22, BSP 1, Close fight 2. Congress heavyweights Joshi, Pilot, Ola, G Vyas, Mirdha all expected to lose.

10. Maharashtra (48 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. NDA 28, UPA 10, close contest 9 and MNS 1. Gadkari, Rane and Mukul Wasnik’s seats are witnessing tough fight. Presence of MNS also cutting into NDA votes.

11. Kerala (20 seats): This has traditionally been a two way contest between UPA and Left. NDA has slight chances on Thiruvanathpuram seat and may open its account in the state. UPA 12, Left 7 and Close contest 1.

12. Assam (14 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. UPA 6, NDA 5, Others 2 and Close contest 1.

13. Gujarat (26 seats): Gujaratis have voted for gujarati asmita and to see Modi as PM. That’s why you see a significant increase in voting from 48% in 2009 to 62% in 2014. Some traditional seats will be retained by Congress – Anand, Bardoli, Porbandar and Dahod. NDA 22, UPA 4.

14. Tamil Nadu (39 seats): A traditional two way contest between AIADMK and DMK has become interesting this time with NDA forging a strong alliance of MDMK, PMK and DMDK plus a few smaller parties. This has changed the equation. Modi wave is clearly visible in the state. This will upset Amma’s chances and she won’t get 30 seats she was dreaming of. AIADMK 20, DMK 10, NDA 8 and close contest 1.

15. Telangana (17 seats): Chandrasekhar Rao of TRS seems to be getting the credit for creation of separate state. He is expected to sweep the state with 9 seats. UPA 3, NDA 2, Others 1 and close contest on 2 seats.

16. Punjab (13 seats): Anti-incumbency seems to be working here against NDA. Plus united Congress workforce in state is negating Modi wave. AAP is also playing spoiler in few constituencies. NDA and UPA likely to get 5 seats each with 3 very close contests including Jaitley’s and Vinod Khanna’s seats.

17. West Bengal (19 seats): Mamata seems to be holding onto her vote bank. Though Modi is popular this is not converting into seats because of very low support base. Congress will be decimated. TMC 10, Left 8 and Congress 1. BJP has a chance in one of the seats where it has put up stars Bappi Lahiri / P. C. Sarkar, George Baker etc. NDA is losing Darjeeling its only seat in W.Bengal in 2009.

Out of the 438 seats which have completed polls, NDA is expected to get 192 (+67) followed by UPA with 81 (-108) seats. 74 seats are seeing very close contest where the victory margin is expected to be very less. This could go anyway and determine the outcome of the Parliament. But still NDA will be ahead even if all close contests go to UPA (probability low).

Special Thanks

Politicalbaaba thanks its readers / followers / supporters / friends / media friends who helped in compiling this list. Will keep on updating list when more information pours in. So if you have info. just email me at politicalbaaba@gmail.com or tweet me @politicalbaaba.

Tables for Seat by Seat All India Lok Sabha (Phase I to VII) Projections

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Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-15 10:25:19/ Reply

Sent u a mail

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 10:08:50/ Reply

Yeah it is a building block for sure!

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-15 10:01:26/ Reply

Yea, that report was an excellent one indeed. U need an applaud for that... Congrats... Yea, last day a few journalists were saying on CNN's Program that even Dalits and Yadavas (youth) voted in good numbers for BJP apart from Upper Castes and OBCs. He travelled across the state and found it quite visible across all regions... This is the case in Bihar too. Approx 70% Upper Castes voted for BJP along with 60% of OBCs, 30% Dalits and 20% Yadavas (predominantly youth)

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-15 09:56:03/ Reply

But, i am confident of BJP opening its account in 2016 Assembly Polls where they came 2nd in 2 constituencies and by 1200 votes came 3rd in another constituency (where the majority of the winner was just below 10k)... So, expecting atleast 3 seats and with the Brand Modi Factor they can earn more. Voting held earlier in Kerala (on April 10), that also affected BJP's chances. I hv seen so many people who were not keenly talking abt Modi during the poll hv begun to name his abilities and vision...

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 09:49:50/ Reply

Did you see my UP Hindus article? That gives a clue. Even if we assume that BJP got majority of Upper Caste and Other OBC votes only and not much of Yadavs, Muslims and Dalits, vote share is 33% enough to cause a tsunami. Add to this some additional votes from Dalits / Yadavs and the no. could go up to 40%.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-15 09:46:57/ Reply

Can you send your address in email, I have to send something to you! Cheers!

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-15 09:44:56/ Reply

If Exit Polls r to be believed, what has really happened in U.P?????? It is more than a Tsunami... Can be named as Tsunami+Hurricane=TSU'NAMO'... One more day left, by this time tmrw, we will hv a clear picture of Pan India. Even in this Tsunami, Kerala shore remain 'unmoved', as per polls (except ABP Nielson), BJP will not open its account in my state! Only relief is that O.Rajagopal might get a Minister of State post via Rajyasabha... Such a talk is on...

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-15 09:33:45/ Reply

Thanks Bro

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-14 09:30:19/ Reply

Prasad, Your projections have been uploaded on blog under Reader's corner. Link below. http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/readers-corner/nda-projections-2014/

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-12 23:21:38/ Reply

UPA 131 NDA 266 It seems now they. Will get more.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-12 16:27:18/ Reply

Up is the key. If we consider 10 seats same as last time, NDA will be 230. 50 makes it 270.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-12 16:25:25/ Reply

Is ur final projection ready?

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-12 10:15:22/ Reply

They say they can influence 1 lac Kurmi voters out of 1.5 (dont know to what extent)... Anyway, 20% polling in first 2 hr... Great beginning

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-12 09:38:02/ Reply

Thanks Joy. In 2004 BJP weakened further due to Kalyan's exit. In 2009 Kalyan was with SP and Lodh community votes went to sp. BJP got only 10.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-12 09:29:13/ Reply

No worries will post your sheet in readers corner by evening. Thanks.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-12 09:28:34/ Reply

Doesn't really matter they are fighting on 2 seats only.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-12 06:08:36/ Reply

Heard a news that Apna Dal leader Supriya Patel asked her followers to wait till 11am to cast their votes. By that time, she would come to know abt the polling percentage in her constituency and if she gets BJP votes... Dont know Kurmis/Patels will respond to it or not

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-12 06:02:09/ Reply

No PB, i dont hv that. Because i gathered all these info predominantly thru phone... Contacted a few of my media friends and then those psephologists as well. They r quite busy out there. Still, they conveyed me an idea abt wht has happened, what is happening and what can be happened.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 22:52:47/ Reply

Got it great. Thanks. Will you have seat by seat info.?

prasad narayan

prasad narayan 2014-05-11 22:36:33/ Reply

Yea, thats correct... I hv sent u something to ur mail id... pls check

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 19:47:45/ Reply

Gr8 Thanks.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 19:38:56/ Reply

Thanks. Polarisation is happening in Bihar as well. More impact there as MY votes not getting split. Here grace is that MY votes will split no matter what. In the later phases split would be less for sure.

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-11 19:35:24/ Reply

36% voteshare fr bjp mean in up is 45-50 over . in 1998 bjp got 38% voteshare seats won 53 (excluding 5 seats in utta) they won actually - 58 total on undivided up but in 1999 kalyan singh left the party and therefore their tally reduced to 30 ( 26 in up 4 in utta) . blast frm the past :D

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 17:51:08/ Reply

Hmmm... U r right... Hope all these things come true... One media person from Delhi told me that, as per their survey, In Western U.P, BJP will do a clean sweep, and wont surprise if they get all the 10 seats (Minimum-8), Next phase also gives BJP atleast 7 seats (Max-9)... Muslim vote consolidation didnt work in these 2 phases, but 3rd phase onwards Jama-ath-ulama-hind and other Sunni Organisations come forward with a list of candidates who r better placed either to defeat BJP or to give a very tough fight. In that phase BJP may get 4-5 seats only. Next phase also seen similar moves and but a chunk of OBC+ Dalit votes helped BJP to counter it and that might hv given them 6-7 seats. 8th phase also brought back that phenomenon, adding fuel to it BJP's organizational lethragy may give BJP 5-6 seats only. The 9th and final phase may also see a similar outcome, 4-5 seats. That means BJP may get between 34-42 seats in U.P... I hv been trying to get more updates from Poorvanchal, 3 of my friedns are there. Unfortunately they were not picking their phones for last 2-3 days due to difficult sachedules in their field of work (election study and media). 2 of them picked their phone up, but couldnt speak on this matter for long. Anyway, will get some more details today/tmrw.

wcv007

wcv007 2014-05-11 16:37:53/ Reply

And as for Uttar pradesh if Bjp gets more than 12-13% votshare difference than 2nd largest party then history tells us 50 seats is not a dream.And

wcv007

wcv007 2014-05-11 16:34:40/ Reply

Modi will surely win by very huge margins on both seats.It will be the largest victories on any seat both vadodra and varanasi .MARK MY WORDS.Vadodra is the safest bjp seat in gujarat and modi only contested from their to make guiness record.73% voting on 16.2 lakh constituency=12 lakh and modi will get around 70% votes followed by 20% to runnerup 50% margin gives 6 lakhs and in Varanasi its al about electing your PM.surely 75-80% turnout will be there again making total votes 12 lakhs.And if modi gets 60% votes there again voctory margin would be around 5 lakhs since rest all will be divided among all 3-4 parties. Getting 60-70% votes for a pm candidate is perfectly normal even in assembly elections all cm candidates who eventually get elected gets 70% vote .

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 15:54:09/ Reply

Yes, absolutely... And many medias r trying their best to keep him out of the PM post. They somehow afraid or dont want him to rule India... I hvnt seen a PM candidate getting vehemently attacked by both medias and opponent political parties until this election... If he becomes PM, that will be called as a 'hard fought game'

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 15:09:15/ Reply

Yea, i will send it to ur id, politicalbaaba@gmail.com, in an excel sheet.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 15:05:21/ Reply

I don't have the beak up. Majority Hindus will support him plus some Muslims as well. It's not only about caste. It's an election wherein to be PM of India is seeking your vote. That changes the dynamics a lot.....

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 14:54:35/ Reply

I believe Brahmins and Bumihars (later with the dissent over Ansari's support to Ajay Rai) in large number... Thakurs, Vyshyas, Kayasthas, Patels (Kurmis) may also support him with good numbers... Muslims, Dalits, Mallas may not. Shias offered Modi support. Dont know how many of them cast their vote... I read ur write up on Varanasi, a nice one indeed. Still, let me ask u, What is ur opinion abt the cast wise vote Modi expected to garner???

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 14:51:51/ Reply

Margin will be >1 lakhs. Close contest ones are difficult to predict. You want me to send the excel sheet to you. It will be easier for you.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 14:47:45/ Reply

Will that reduce Modi's margin? I will do it before that, okay...

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 14:14:28/ Reply

By what time do you intend to publish? I was thinking of doing it before exit polls start somewhere around 4.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 14:09:10/ Reply

Mallah community first said they would press NOTA now going with Mulayam for reservations. Can't help it.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 14:00:57/ Reply

I mentioned abv on Varanasi Constituency

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 14:00:16/ Reply

I read a news while surfing, the boatmen community and those who live with the help of Ganga r going to vote for SP (approx 1.25 is their population)... I dont know which caste they belong to, u must be knowing it... They want to be included in SC and ;ulayam had given them a word. One of their leader (leader of their orgz) said that no matter SP lose or win, most of them will vote for SP for the SC quota... Pls enquire abt it

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 13:56:37/ Reply

I will post for u too... Ndtv is on wed, reliable source.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 13:28:48/ Reply

I think all of them will be tom. Nobody would want to be delayed. You have a blog? Where will you post?

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 13:28:16/ Reply

Pls read not opinion poll but exit poll

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 13:21:07/ Reply

ABP News Opinion Poll is on tmrw evening and NDTV is on Wednesday. Any news abt HEADLINES TODAY/AAJ TAK, CNN IBN (heard that it is also on tmrw), TIMES NOW etc... If u hv the details, pls provide it... With the help of my friends (psephologists) and believable sources, i shall also post a SEAT PROJECTION by tomorrow evening.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 13:17:07/ Reply

Leave Kazarkode... BJP will surely garner more votes, no doubt in that. But, cant win this seat. Muslim Population is almost 35%, Christian- 8%. Moreover half of Hindu votes will get split between CPIM and INC. But, Surendran is a strong candidate and the face of BJP's young brigade. TELENGANA may give BJP upto 4 seats, i strongly believe.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 12:33:36/ Reply

Telangana I am not so sure, I have Trivandrum as close contest. Kasargod I heard is also close but high Muslim population it seems. W.Bengal is another state where BJP in contention in 3 seats. Let's see

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 12:23:21/ Reply

Thats true PB, i hv 3 states in my list which can bring 'Surprises' for NDA and can be named as 'BLACK HORSES'... ORISSA-TAMIL NADU-TELENGANA... And think, if even my state contributes a seat to NDA (wow!)... I know, O.Rajagopal personally and i am from his native place, Palakkad. Such a down to earth person, unblemished and workaholic by all means. Born at the wrong end, if he was born in Karnataka or in any one of Hindi Heart Land states, he would hv enjoyed to prime positions. He falls among the politicians who r socially committed and like to deliver whenever they get an opportunity... It is a close contest in Trivandrum, very less chance of him being glorious... Still, expecting a HUGE MIRACLE! He is a ministerial candidate, if wins.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 11:00:32/ Reply

Losses in Bihar / UP will be compensated by Odisha and TN I feel.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-11 10:54:10/ Reply

007 good one Prasad. Bond James Bond. In TN BJP best performance was 6 seats, I think in 1998 / 99 in alliance with one of the 2 Dravidian parties. In Karnataka BJP won't cross congress nos, Karnataka has always voted against the party expected to form govt. at Center. Bihar I agree BJP-RJD will split honours. That is what is visible in the sheet till phase viii. UP 40 is ok. That's why I said despite 30/62 close contest 20 odd seats will mostly go to sp / bsp and not BJP.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-11 10:36:03/ Reply

Good Prediction '007'... A small mistake in total number of seats in Karnataka. I hereby add my views (not objections). Being a South Indian i can smell out the Modi Wave in TN, but dont know whether they can convert it into seats... 3-4 r almost sure... Unpredictable Triangular Contest in more than 10 seats. It will be a 'stunning result' in the history of TN, if NDA bag 8 Seats. In Karnataka, Modi Wave is quite vivid in Coastal Areas and BJP can score 2 or 3 seats more to what u forecasted. In Bihar, it is a very strong bi polar election on the fray where NDA may get over RJD+INC's fight, like 19, 18, 03. Close contests r more than 20. In U.P, as far as i am concerned BJP led NDA wont cross 45 or even end up with 40-42. If they get 45+, then it can be termed as 'Modi Tsunami' .

wcv007

wcv007 2014-05-11 05:31:09/ Reply

my prediction http://varunsingla.wordpress.com/2014/05/10/lok-sabha-2014-prediction-bjp-242-congress-82/#respond njp 242 congress 82

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-11 00:44:29/ Reply

bihar 21 not out of reach - even credible csds gave upto 29 to nda - so iam confident of 24 to nda and in mp 2004 bjp won 25 seats there don't forget that bro- so 25 very much possible fr bjp. karnataka i agree it can be cong - 14 bjp -12 but it is very close fight , almost 9% bump in vote % , these 9% will decide , and maharshtha 32 fr mahayuti is possible , ong/ncp facing huge incumbency not only urban area also in village. rpi and swk vote will be plus fr nda that will help to widen the gap against upa.

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-11 00:38:39/ Reply

darjeeling is in the bags morcha still very strong , tmc still sturggling to hold in hills .even alipur-duar 2009 election bjp got 2 lakh votes, so bjp have chance there. in assansole huge non-bengali population and babul supriyo did good election campaign there - krishnagar seat tmc mp tapas pal facing huge incumbency and bjp candidate satyabrata mukherzee is land lord there. he have influence there - he got 17% there last time now modi wave and 4 way contest make his chance brighter another seat kolkatta north where 58% non bengali with 24% urdu speaking muslim- tmc finding hard there and again 4 way contest with strong cong candidate saumen da contesting he will take some bengali votes frm tmc- bjp trying hard there , that's why modi done campaign in kakurgachi , coz he know there bjp have chance. in these 4 seats bjp have very good chance- sreeamrampore gone well thought rigging by tmc- nailed that seat fr them otherwise bappida gave tough fight to them.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-10 13:09:12/ Reply

India Today-Cicero Opinion Poll Conducted from 30th April to 3rd May revealed that Modi is receiving 56% of votes from Varanasi where Ajai Rai is trailing at 2nd and Kejriwal at 3rd respectively. 1500+ is the sample size and taken from different areas of Varanasi.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-10 13:05:35/ Reply

Ok. I can understand it friend... No problem. Remain in ur pseudonym

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-10 10:24:54/ Reply

3 will be good result for BJP. Congress 3 surprises me.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-10 10:23:57/ Reply

Great Joy. Is possible? It depends upon degree of Modi wave. Personally feel Bihar, MP, Karnataka, Maharashtra bit high. Am not sure whether they get anything in Bengal.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-10 07:40:28/ Reply

Pls participate in quiz contest to win exciting prizes.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-10 07:40:05/ Reply

Thanks Soumit. So Odisha is bang on! Nice to hear from a localite. BJP may win the highest no. of seats in Lok Sabha and second highest in assembly. It may have won Puri as well if Modi would have held a rally here. I repeat Odisha will teach the nation what is the difference between state and national elections. Cheers

Soumit

Soumit 2014-05-10 03:49:30/ Reply

*Correction - "short" of miraculous

Soumit

Soumit 2014-05-10 03:48:06/ Reply

First of all, I have to say, it looks like a pretty sound analysis. As for the seats witnessing close fights, I believe the party perceived to be stronger and in command (in this case BJP) has the advantage as the undecideds generally vote for them. Coming to the Odisha figures and since I belong to the state I have a special interest there, I would say, Odisha might just be the big surprise of these elections. The way BJP has gained momentum over the past few months has been nothing sort of miraculous. But when I think of it again, I believe the pointers were there even before that. Last year when I visited my home-town of Sambalpur in Western Odisha, I could see the excitement with regards to Modi being anointed BJP's PM candidate. When people say there is no Modi-wave or it's just a media creation, I just point them towards my home state. If anywhere the Modi wave is visible it has to be Odisha. According to the state intelligence reports, BJP might win upto 10 seats in Odisha and I won't be surprised at that because it's certainly winning atleast 4 out of the 5 seats in Western Odisha. And yes, a couple of more rallies and a tad bit stronger organisational presence might have seen them sweep the state this time around. Naveen's in disarray and his numbers are sure to come down even in the assembly elections but there he is so far ahead of the others that he would still get more than 74 seats which is the halfway mark. Cheers. Thanks.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-10 00:11:06/ Reply

Good to see you after long Joy. Pls participate in quiz contest to win prizes. I will reply on your nos. give me some time. Also mail me your address I have to see you something.

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-10 00:03:02/ Reply

south goa vote divided coz alemo contesting as ind candidate- so he will divide christian votes - bjp hoping fr that- let c . as per delhi it will be miracle fr cong if they win 1 seats in delhi - anti wave is so strong in delhi that's why good candidate like ajay makhan try to figh with his name not fr cong symbol- bjp won 5 seats as per assembly election i stick with 6 fr bjp , after all bjp one time 1999 won all seats in delhi. and aap cutting muslim votes that also helping bjp. bjp won udhampur seat 1998 and 1999. vote % this time go up almost 20% than 2009 election - it's 55-45 as per hindu-muslim population, such bump is sign of big hindu consolidation fr bjp, iam hopeful of bjp pulling of udhampur after 15 yrs gap.

raru

raru 2014-05-09 23:19:27/ Reply

Joy, Great predictions with details on seat!! I differ with a few though: Delhi - 6 (I think Cong. is in with a chance on 1 and AAP will take 1-2. Also more than north west delhi, i think it is new delhi, east & north east where it is more difficult for bjp as bjp candidate selection there has not been so good while cong. also has strong candidates here) Punj. - 8 (Looks vv. unlikely because there is actually a very strong anti-akali wave in punjab. In fact ppl there are really confused because they want to vote for Modi but do not want to vote for Akalis. Also AAP is doing well on a few seats. Maybe if AAP acts as a spoiler for Cong. then BJP-SAD can win 8) Chandigarh - Chandigarh is a AAP bastion.I feel Kiron Kher will finish at 3. Jammu - 2 (I doubt BJP can pull the udhampur seat. Ghulam nabi azad is a tough opponent and it is a muslim majority seat) Goa - 2 (It will be very difficult to get South Goa for BJP. South Goa is a congress bastion. They haven't lost in South Goa in some 30 odd years) The rest looks pretty good!

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-09 22:44:31/ Reply

in wb cong will be still hold 3 seats ( maldha north baharampur and murshidabad) left will be 10-12 and bjp - 3 ( bjp surge evident in wb - place like kolkatta uttar howrah where all non bengali voters move to bjp who all voted tmc in 2011 election. tmc will be still increase there seats 24-26 but not more than that- i can bet .but real looser will be left - it will their worst performance after many years,

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-09 22:33:12/ Reply

sorry jhk is 10 not 2* one mistake.

Joy Chakraborty

Joy Chakraborty 2014-05-09 22:31:42/ Reply

admin nice prediction- well done . my prediction fr nda - bihar- 21 add ljp - 3 up- 45 chht- 9 jhk-2 guj-23 raj-22 (can be 25-0 fr bjp) madhyapradesh- 26 kar-14-15 tamilnadu- 3 (kanyakumai coimbatore south chennai or vellore ) add mdmk 1 dmdk-2 pmk-2 tg- 2 ( secendrabad and mehebbobnagar) add tdp -2 ap- 1 (rajampetta) add tdp-14 wb- 3 (darejeeling , assansole and krishangar) mah 18 add ss-12 rpi-1 swk-1 total- 32 assam- 6 (huge shock fr cong in assam) orissa- 7 ( cong down to 1-2 seats at max bjp will be main opp party in odisha ) delhi- 6 ( only 1 seat tough fr bjp is uditraj seat- rakhi birla may win. haryana- 6 add 1 hjk and inld -2 total -9 cong wiped out only 1 seat they will win dipendar hooda seat) utta- 5 (repeat of 2009 election)cong won 5 seats that time it will be now fr bjp ) him - 3 (same) pun- 2 add sad- 6 it can be 5 too - stick with 6 total - 8 jammu- 2 goa- 2 unt- 4 ( chandgarh) also arunnachal - 1( 2 also possible) nda other partner- sdf - 1 ndf- 1 ncp (meghalaya) - 1 total- 3 so total nda - 285-290 ( it's look reality now) admin wait fr ur reply fr my prediction)note trs also will join with 6 mp seats .

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-09 22:15:53/ Reply

If no BJP govt., re-elections probably. Third Front who will be PM question can't be solved. So many PMs.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-09 22:15:04/ Reply

BJP closer to 250 will form got with support of TRS, YSR Congress, JMM, MNS and other smaller parties. Pawar, Maya could abstain.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-09 22:11:37/ Reply

Yes!

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-09 21:52:55/ Reply

Both BSP,TMC has decided not to support BJP...SP will not support....BJD has claimed already not to support BJP....DMK has said keep communal parties away..ADMK ..I m nt sure that jaylalitha will support BJP under modi as vidhasbha elections are due... Chances are YSRCP ,as jagan said he is ready to work with centre for wellfare of andhra TRS has not yet uttered words. SO I would like to ask u @Polliticalbaaba..what are choices modi has so BJP can make govt under him??? Rajnath has stated earlier that no other than modi will become PM.then do u see chances of 3 rd front with jaylalitha/navin /mulayam at helm Give your thought plz

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-09 21:46:45/ Reply

does that mean NDA is close to 272+ with few seats needed or absoulte majority as they are claiming

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-09 20:54:16/ Reply

@paresh your prediction is wrong for many states..eg wbengal---0-1.Not more tha that

Paresh Patel

Paresh Patel 2014-05-09 20:06:14/ Reply

ASSAM 4 5 BIHAR 18 20 CHATHISGARH 7 8 DELHI 3 4 GOA 1 2 GUJARAT 21 22 HARYANA 4 5 HIMACHAL PRADESH 2 3 JAMMU&KASHMIR 1 1 JHARKHAND 8 9 KARNATAKA 12 15 MADHYA PRADESH 21 24 MAHARASHTRA 32 34 ORISSA 5 6 OTHER Uts 2 3 PUNJAB 5 6 RAJASTAN 21 22 SEEMANDHRA 11 13 TELENGANA 3 5 TN 5 8 UTHAR PRADESH 46 52 UTHARAKHAND 2 3 WB 6 8 TOTAL BJP 240 278 AIADMK 22 26 Biju Janata Dal 6 8 TRS 3 5 YSR Congress 4 6 TOTAL NDA 275 323

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-09 18:28:52/ Reply

Ok... Thank U...

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-09 17:18:27/ Reply

Market jump indicates it might be higher than that. FIIs doing a very detailed exit poll, much larger scale than any news channels and have pumped in 2000-3000 crores for the same. They will be leaking selectively info. in the market. Phase I - VIII will be online soon.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-09 17:16:42/ Reply

Thanks both assemblies will have hung house I feel. Have got feedback on Phase VIII, revised nos. for Phase I - VIII will be updated soon.

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-09 17:14:05/ Reply

@sachin I too agree with you when it comes for poll projections regarding maharashtra.Even i studied 2009 results constituencywise ,even i found as i stated earlier that NDA might end up with 28-32.Not more than that @Polliticalbaaba....waiting for updates in excel sheet...NDA might end up with 240-245.What would be your thought???

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-09 16:57:48/ Reply

Seemandhra and Telengana exit polls done by Regional News Papers and Channels say that TDP-BJP combine has got a clear edge both in Parliament and Assembly Polls in Seemandhra while TRS may get approx 50 seats in Telengana Assembly and form the govt with the help of MIM and others. On the other hand, Congress shall get 7 seats out of 17 seats from Telengana, while TRS-5, TDP-BJP-4 and MIM-1. Some says Congress-7, TRS-6, TDP-BJP-3, MIM-1. In Seemandhra TDP-BJP-13-16 by all surveys except one which quoted 11. YSRC-8-13, only one survey predicted 13 seats to YSRC while the rest gave 8-11

Venkat Gandhi

Venkat Gandhi 2014-05-09 13:05:28/ Reply

Fairly close to what I think too

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-09 12:55:24/ Reply

Hi Prasad. I have compliance issues in my office and model code of conduct doesn't allow me to write on political matters, hence use a pseudonym. Hope you understand.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-09 10:02:52/ Reply

Hope the details of phase 8 (seat wise predictions) are ready with u... Expecting those

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-09 10:00:21/ Reply

Since it is an open forum, i kindly request Political Baba as well as others (those who dont use their real names) to disclose it...

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-09 09:57:08/ Reply

Sachin, good forecast... But, i would rather go with 33-35 for NDA from Maharashtra. BJP will get 17-19, SS-13-14, Othr Allies-02... Lets see...

adzbaba (@adzbaba_dotcom)

adzbaba (@adzbaba_dotcom) 2014-05-09 09:42:58/ Reply

for deatailed 2014 poll predictions: http://justdummy.com/2014/05/namos-bjp-set-to-win-but-sans-majority-2/ http://justdummy.com/2014/05/the-andhra-people-won-the-elections/ http://justdummy.com/2014/05/justdummy-predicts-hung-assembly-in-telangana-state/

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-08 23:13:00/ Reply

No sir Prasad. I am fairly young, not old. Both Modi & Kejri are outsiders. Modi is PM candidate. If he wins there will be development. Varanasi would want to be a PM constituency. Even if he vacates Varanasi in favour of Vadodra, still people believe development would happen. They would not want to defeat a person who could be PM. UP has delivered 8 PMs, Varanasi wouldn't want to be left behind. Plus Hindus would vote for Modi. Kejriwal is getting support of Muslims. He is a good man but chose wrong constituency.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-08 23:04:58/ Reply

Thanks Sachin for your support & encouragement. I am not saying 35 for BJP in Maharashtra, only 28 plus 9 close contests. Will wait for your seat wise predictions for Maharashtra. Also participate in quiz contest to win exciting prizes.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-08 19:09:36/ Reply

Majority or margin?

Sachin

Sachin 2014-05-08 14:49:40/ Reply

Hi PB, First of all, congrats for doing a good job !! I have been tracking this blog from quite a long time. I don't agree with NDA getting more than 35 seats in maharastra. Basically congress has got a good strong hold on the rural region & NDA has a good Cadre in the urban region. Due to strong modi wave, NDA may gain some more seats. But be in a range of 28-30. I checked the constituency wise for Maharashtra. Will add my comments & forward you the excel sheet

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-08 14:24:28/ Reply

Sir, in ur opinion, what r the advantages of Modi here? Is Kejrival getting support from Dalits, Upper Castes etc? Whats ur thought?

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-08 14:19:50/ Reply

What will be the majority?

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-08 14:10:52/ Reply

Modi winning comfortably.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-08 09:54:36/ Reply

Getting into the 'Question of the Hour'... Who will be the winner of Varanasi? Many medias hv been trying their best to see Modi defeated. I wondered at the way they projected Kejriwal ahead of Modi... In todays TOI, it is written as Kejriwal vs Modi!!! Modi's name comes second!!! I never belittle the capabilities of Kejriwal, but is he popular than Modi??? A question to be raised at this point in time. Foreign as well as some pro-left, pro-congress and pro-minority (cant resist saying this)domestic medias hv been toiling to keep him out of PM post. This is an undeniable truth. I hv never seen a PM candidate faces such ferocious personal attacks from his opponents... Such a ruthless and relentless antagonism. Jama-ath-alhindu offered their support to Kejriwal and it assures that atleast 80% of Muslim Votes will swing in his flavour. Ajay Rai has lost the momentum and Ansari's support may not help him get through. It looks like Muslims hv refused to follow what Ansari said. Being a Bumihar, a major part of 1.2 lac Bumihar votes might move in Rai's kitty. Nthng more is expected. And INC as well as SP in a combined effort to defend him from winning this seat and helping Kejriwal by doing it. DM denied permission to Modi's Rally and it irked the BJP and led to massive protests/war of words. Just now heard that they gave permission to 4/5 rallies, but BJP is reluctant and r going to condusve 'Sathyagraha'. Many smaller parties, and ieven suspect BSP r helping Kejrival by placing a very weak candidate against him. Knowing all these, i would like to ask 'politicalbaaba' a question, what is the latest ground report and ur prediction?

raru

raru 2014-05-08 00:51:42/ Reply

Hey Prasad, Happy to hear that. Only wish that you're projection for NDA in Bihar were equally promising :)

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-07 13:17:10/ Reply

Abhisek, i too expect the same from Orissa

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-07 13:14:21/ Reply

Raru, i appreciate ur assessment. In U.P's remaining 33 seats, i guess BJP will do better than ur assumption... NDTV's latest Opinion Poll, done just a week back, gave 21/33 to BJP. As far as i am concerned, they will hv more than 16/33...

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-06 23:54:31/ Reply

Thanks Raru. In a constituency wise forecast some seats will go wrong. However I take your feedback. If you want state wise analysis go to key states section of blog and have a look - big states UP / Bihar / WBengal / TNadu / APradesh and Maharashtra have been explained in detail there.

raru

raru 2014-05-06 23:48:17/ Reply

Hi Politicalbaba, This is a wonderful initiative by you and i make it a point to go through your blog daily to see new analysis. It will be great if you can post constituency or state-constituency wise detailed analysis to make things more interesting. I found some such constituency wise detailed analysis on other sites and they quite interesting. As for this analysis, i represents more or less what is going to happen finally though you have erred in constituency wise details of where bjp might win or lose. For example, in gujarat it is infact Sabarkanha where bjp will lose (shanker singh vaghela of cong. will win). In Rajasthan, even alwar has a bad candidate selection (baba ramdev was allotted this seat as part of his 2 seats) but modi wave might still see bjp through. Delhi, it is 4 seats for sure for bjp. South Delhi (bhidhuri) and West Delhi (Pravesh Verma) are definitely home. Doubts persist on Chandni Chowk, New Delhi, North east, north west and east delhi but bjp should be able to take 2 more from here. I am slightly disappointed with Bihar and if bjp is not able to cross 20 here, then it will make things difficult for NaMo. I expect Paswan to win 2-3 and their other ally 1 which means bjp is only winning 13-14 out of 30 contested. Quite disappointing. Orissa, i think it will be a few seats in western orissa where they might win some. West Bengal, i really doubt they will be able to win anything there. I have lived i Bengal and i know that bjp can never establish a critical mass there. Usually only non-bengalis vote for bjp there and bjp politics is completely out of sync with the bengali way of thinking. Haryana, they will surely win 8 (with HJC & INLD). This i can say for sure as i am from haryana. In my constituency of Faridabad, BJP is definitely winning and there is quite a wave in favour of Modi here. In Telangana, North Telangana will go with TRS while south and closer to Andhra constituencies (with sizeable seema andhra population) will go with congress. BJP/TDP might just be able to pull out a seat or 2. Hyderabad will go with MIM as always. In UP, it is the East & Central UP which is the most worrisome for BJP. As per my knowledge based on newspaper reports, BJP's organizational strength is really weak in East UP. Combined with poor candidate selection in most constituencies, high muslim population and no clear caste formations in its favour, BJP might end up doing badly. Out of 33 seats left, my expectation for bjp would be around 7-8.

pushendra

pushendra 2014-05-06 18:34:03/ Reply

bjp is winning min 35 seats out of 47 till now, there r only 4-5 seats, which BJP cant win otherwise in all other seats they r either winning or having a close fight. In ghaziabad Gen Vk singh is winning with a landslide margin,min 2 lac votes, it was a one sided fight. In baghpat BJPs victory is sure nd Ajit will be on 3rd position.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-06 17:11:00/ Reply

Bang on! That's what I am saying as we'll. If he campaigned for Puri, they would have won this seat as we'll.

Abhisek

Abhisek 2014-05-06 16:33:15/ Reply

Election results on Odisha were never so unpredictable. The BJD is on tenterhooks as the polls will also decide the fate of the State Govt. But, Odisha is likely to spring several surprises and the phenomenal performance of the BJP in the Lok sabha seats is likely to be one of them. BJP winning 6-10 seats from Odisha was unthinkable a couple of months ago. It is probably one reason why Naredra Modi rallies were fewer in the State. Even important places like Berhampur, Cuttack, Puri, Baripada, Koraput and Phulbani waited for Narendra Modi. Had he visited this places, BJP would have literally swept Odisha. But, in the Assembly elections BJD has a clear advantage owing to the TINA factor. If there is one State where Modi wave swayed the electoral choice then it is Odisha. Naveen Patnaik's charisma paled infront of the Modi wave. Now wait for 16th May.

Vijay Tiwari

Vijay Tiwari 2014-05-06 13:31:00/ Reply

I agree with your analysis..I think it is the perfect one..Keep up the good work politicalbaaba.. Thank You for the presentation..

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-06 09:40:30/ Reply

Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba and commented:

Interesting Analysis!

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-06 08:19:16/ Reply

Thanks Prasad.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-06 08:08:43/ Reply

Sir, I also agree with u... >235 (NDA), It is gonna be Modi as YSRC, AIADMK, INLD, MNS, North Eastern Parties will support him. DMK might not support them as 2 years down the line TN is gonna see Assembly Polls where DMK require the votes of Minority Castes (Muslim-8.5% and Christian-10.5). TRS is like a 'coconut fell on the fence', can go either way. And to RARU, In Bihar, as per my friends' opinion, NDA may end up with 16-18, anything abv that can be termed as a 'Modi Tsunami'. And in Utharakhand, upper caste votes gets split and it may lessen BJP's clean sweep or a 4-1 lead. In Haryana, the situation was quite favouravle to NDA until the candidate selection, but, now the alliance of BJP+HJC is picking up and it may fetch them one or two extra seats, but i still prefer to keep my tally as 4-5...

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-06 06:21:38/ Reply

Thanks Shobhit. Modi would like to make Amit Shah Hime Minister but will face opposition. But it will be from Gujarat. Smriti Irani? Defence could be Gen. VK Singh.

shobhit mishra

shobhit mishra 2014-05-06 00:10:43/ Reply

@politicalbaba,as per voting trends and modi wave its looks certain that NDA can easily get 272 seats,i want to ask u that u have any feedback that who is going to take home and defence ministry becoz i have read somewhere about that and may be arun is going to FM,shushma HRD,Yaswant Forign and if u have any input and sources regarding ministry then share this ASAP if u can,,,,,,,

raru

raru 2014-05-05 23:09:38/ Reply

Prasad, Some of the your projection look outrightly wrong. This is based on my experience as a local. Haryana - 4 to 5 is low. BJP will win everything except Rohtak (Cong.), Sirsa (INLD), Hisar (INLD) and maybe Kurukshetra (Cong.). Also INLD will in all probability go with BJP post poll. Uttarakhand - It will be 5-0 or at worst 4-1 in favour of BJP There is a huge anti-incumbency with Vijay Bahuguna government there. Bihar - I don't know whether your projection of 16-18 is with allies or without allies. If it is with allies, then BJP is going to be very disappointed with this. Also it will be sad to see people like Lalu making a comeback Rest looks quite believable.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 22:37:29/ Reply

NaMo will be PM if NDA gets 250. If it gets 220 and Modi is able to attract allies who agree to him as PM, then also he becomes PM (probability low). Else he could support Rajnath in becoming PM in a quid pro quo deal. Sushama is the dark horse. I have forecasted this way back in July when I started blogging. Link below: http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/05/bjp-part-ii/

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 22:30:58/ Reply

Actually on these two topics who will support whom and who will form the govt. there are many posts I am not sure if you are referring to latest posts. See for these two topics under Elections 2014 page. DMK is missing though. TRS and YSR included. DMK may give outside support.

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-05 21:37:10/ Reply

I would be happy if your poll predictions are right...In support section u didnt mention of DMK and YSRCP whom they will support. I feel NDA + TRS + YSRCP + DMK- will be next coalition NDA-230 -245 TRS-8-10 YSRCP-10-14 DMK-8-12 What do u think ,who will be the next PM? I heard from a source within RSS..They had presented NaMo to garner more seats as much as possible and post-poll to present Rajnath singh as PM...Though Rajnath has said its unethical..still Plz Give your opinion..!!

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 21:06:39/ Reply

These people have sound political acumen and experience as well.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 21:05:52/ Reply

There's no sample size. I talk to 3-4 sources with different political affiliations for each state and get info. Friends / family / journalists / blog followers / twitter followers etc.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-05 19:13:28/ Reply

And Sir, if u dont mind pls tell me what is the average sample size of ur methodology?

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-05 16:07:35/ Reply

Ok. I will go thru it and send it to u in an excel sheet tmrw

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 14:06:02/ Reply

Thanks Prasad. If you send this in an excel sheet I will post the same on the blog with due credit to you. Also pls participate in quiz contest to win exciting prizes. I have also carried out a post polling Phase I - VII seat by seat predictions. Pls see if you haven't and give feedback specially on Kerala.

Prasad Narayan

Prasad Narayan 2014-05-05 13:55:00/ Reply

Sir, I hv very keenly be watching ur predictions since March... U hv been doing a commendable work indeed. I hereby post my forecast of seats for NDA in all states based on the details i collected via my friends who hv been working as psephologists and working in different parts of India (not specific forecast on state by state in North East). Being a Keralite i can very precisely say that it is too difficult for BJP to open their account this time (only a miracle can give BJP a seat here). So, let me begin with Kerala.KERALA- 00-01 TN-03-04 KARNATAKA-10-12 SEEMANDHRA-11-13 TELENGANA-02-03 CHATHISGARH-07-08 MADHYA PRADESH-21-24 JHARKHAND-08-09 BIHAR-16-18 RAJASTAN-21-22 GUJARAT-21-22 ASSAM-04-05 ORISSA-05-06 WB-01-02 MAHARASHTRA-33-35 GOA-01-02 UTHAR PRADESH-39-43 UTHARAKHAND-02-03 HIMACHAL PRADESH-02-03 JAMMU&KASHMIR-01-02 PUNJAB-05-06 HARYANA-04-05 DELHI-03-04 OTHER UTs-02-03 TOTAL-222-255 SEATS.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 11:04:57/ Reply

Odisha I have got great feedback from locals and local media. Complete wave. It will teach nation difference between state and national elections. People clearly don't want third front govt.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-05 11:03:26/ Reply

Thanks Yogesh. Predictions are based on feedback received. So I in turn depend upon my sources to give me correct data which includes media journalists. If you see my pre poll prediction, it is 38 for UP, 21 for Bihar, 28 for Maharashtra. Anyways 5-10% margin of error is always there. Thanks again participate in quiz contest as well to win exciting prizes.

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-05 09:51:26/ Reply

@Shobhit..Sir..some of ur predictions are wrong,as per my thinking..i might be wrong... UP-50,i think it would be between 40 -45(including ally apna dal) Jammu-2,i think it would be between 0-1 Karnataka-13,i think it would be between 8-12 Maharshtra-35,i think it would be between 28-32 Telangana-3,i think it would be between 0-2 Andhra-15,i think it would be between 11-13 WB-3,i think it would be between 0-1 Odisha-6,i think it would be between 1-4 Kerala-1,i think it would be 0. Jharkhand-10,i think it would be between 6-8. If i m wrong please correct it...I felt its ground reality. I hope NDA may gain as u and i wish..

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-05 09:42:02/ Reply

@Politicalbaaba...Though i m staunch NaMo supporter..i m still unsure of getting 28 seats in Maharashtra...I f u closely look elections many seats in western maharashtra are stronghold of Rashtravadi congress and congress(UPA)..Out of 48 seats,still i believe Nda may reach to margin of 28 to 32 but not 35... I have friends in UP..They suggested BJP will reach to 40-45..but not to 50. In tamilnadu which always sees bipolar election between ADMK and DMK,even though with rainbow coalition ,it seems difficult to bag 8 seats...u can grant seats of vaiko and kanniyakumari and of rammodas...but elsewhere i dnt think its nda..One may reach to tally of 4-5. In Odisha I m not aware..but it is stronghold of BJD..Is it really possible that BJP will bag 7 seats as u indicated. But anyway i really liked the way u presented data..it seems to be perfect by and large... I hope u r not giving false figures in support of NaMo...I welcomed you for great feedback.THANKS

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 21:49:10/ Reply

THANKS

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 21:48:34/ Reply

Link for 192 seats is given below in tables. I appreciate your feedback. NDA won 21 seats in 2009 when there was no wave, this time good wave and strong anti incumbency against state and center. So 28 seats not significantly higher this is much lower than what polls predicting.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 21:46:01/ Reply

Thanks Prithvi I have kept that for post MAY 12 when I have completed phase I - IX predictions. Please participate in polls on blog if you have not already.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 21:44:04/ Reply

Sure will have a look. Thanks.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 21:42:16/ Reply

Thanks Naveen will incorporate based on additional feedback.

shobhit mishra

shobhit mishra 2014-05-04 21:30:46/ Reply

@Yogesh i think the total tally of NDA will go beyond 200 till 7th Phase becoz its not really 192 ,its above than this becoz you havenot included the seats of close contest which given by politicalbaba and i think its balanced and almost acurate post poll analysis and if you see in twitter many of person have given almost 35 seats in Maharastra.according to different polls from person in twitter this is historic era of modi and BJP.THE Balanced final tally of NDA would be In Assam 5,MP 23,UP 50,RAJASTHAN 22,DELHI 5,CHHATISGARG 8,BIHAR 22,JAMMU 2,HARYANA 5,KARNATAKA 13,MAHARASTRA 35,GUJRAT 21,HP 3,UTTRAKHAND 4,TELENGANA 3,SEEMANDHRA 15,TAMILNADU 8,WB 3,ORISSA 6,KERLA 1,GOA 1,JHARKHAND 10 , ITS SO HUGE MODI EFFECT,,,,,,,,,,

yogesh

yogesh 2014-05-04 20:42:58/ Reply

Whatever u have calculated 192 ,,i would ask u in what sense...i made arithmatic and it is 176..plz clarify..I hail from maharashtra..i m not sure that nda will get 28 seats...

prithvi

prithvi 2014-05-04 20:08:26/ Reply

Have been following the blog for quite some time .. enjoy reading the articles.. Please consider comparing this article or data set with your earlier projection of seats (I know the data is already there but am assuming there are many people interested in seeing how the different projections are becoming true or not ). It would make an interesting analysis and good read.. cheers !

shobhit mishra

shobhit mishra 2014-05-04 19:32:24/ Reply

Can you take little bit more concern about haryana and darjling and srirampur on west bengal because few one of polls in twiter givind INLD 3-5 and there was very good chance of NDA in darjling sprcially by goving support by GJM and few one expecting bappi lahri to crack the post

naveen

naveen 2014-05-04 19:28:15/ Reply

Hathras seat in UP bjp will win as here brahmins and OBCs voted to BJP not to BSP.

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 17:13:26/ Reply

Hey Shobhit Thanks. I have recd. feedback on Singrur and will update in next phase. Delhi is pretty open. Bsp will get a few seats from 15 close contest seats in UP. MP is not Rajasthan but will take your feedback and get more info. Participate in quiz contest to win prizes on blog.

shobhit mishra

shobhit mishra 2014-05-04 15:27:31/ Reply

First of all very good assesment ..well done but i think little bit modification needed. You are little bit less optimistic on MP,2-3more seats can be in the pocket of NDA.in Punjab Singrur is goingin pockrt of AAP and in Telengana NDA may be bagged mehboobnagar.in delhi AAP can get 1 Seat and in UP BSP may get 2-3 more

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-04 10:19:27/ Reply

Thanks Sir.

A.K.Srivastava

A.K.Srivastava 2014-05-04 10:01:05/ Reply

I am keeping close watch.I tend to believe your forecast.

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