• politicalbaaba@gmail.com
  • May 18, 2014

Nitish Kumar Chief Minister of Bihar resigned from his post yesterday taking moral responsibility for his party’s humiliating defeat in Lok Sabha elections. He has called for a meeting of his party MLAs today in the evening to decide the next course of action. His party won only 2 seats in 2014 vs 20 in 2009. The primary reason for the defeat was his decision to break away with BJP its ally of 17 years on flimsy grounds. This has been proved as a harakiri. BJP won 30 seats in Bihar partly due to Modi wave and partly due to sympathy as majorly people felt Nitish did wrong to BJP. If they would have fought together NDA would have swept the state. Nitish has not asked for dissolution of house.

In his presser he was on the verge of crying (poor chap), utter confusion prevailed, he said anybody could form the govt. On asked what would he do if party MLAs still name him as their leader, he said he has said goodbye. Sharad Yadav, Party President of Janata Dal (United) was conspicuous by his absence. He said in New Delhi, that he would speak to Lalu & all other secular forces to keep Modi at bay. Later he denied the story.

JDU enjoys majority in house with support from Congress and some Independents in 243 member assembly. JDU 115, BJP 91, RJD 22, Congress 4 and Others 11.

Why did Nitish resign?

1. Pressure from Sharad Yadav camp. Sharad Yadav was never happy with Nitish’s decision of parting ways with BJP. But went ahead with the decision as Nitish was stronger. Due to this decision even Sharad lost his Madhepura seat . So he is clearly unhappy and got a chance to settle score with Nitish forcing him to take moral responsibility and resign. After all it was Nitish’s decision.

2. Nitish senses there could be spilt in JDU. BJP will try to destabilize his govt by weaning away MLAs. Sushil Modi had claimed 50 JDU MLAs were in touch with him. There has already been an exodus of MPs / MLAs from his party. So he is trying to preempt it and show people that BJP is trying to destabilize his govt and gain sympathy.

What could happen?

1. JDU MLAs could re-elect Nitish as their leader and he would again become CM. He would say under pressure from party MLAs he is accepting responsibility again.

2. Some other person is elected as leader and he becomes CM. This could be from Sharad Yadav or Nitish camp depending upon who has the number in the party. Seems at this stage Nitish camp it will be.

3. JDU may refrain from forming govt. They would wait for MLAs to quit and go to BJP. 2/3rd of MLAs are required to split party and it will be difficult for BJP to split JDU (77 MLAs required). JDU MLAs which support BJP could resign in the hope of getting re-elected on BJP ticket. So as Modi claims if 50 MLAs of JDU resign and get re-elected BJP will emerge as single largest party. But this could take 3-6 months.

4. JDU and Lalu’s RJD may get together to form govt. (highly unlikely). Sharad is taking help of Lalu to counter Nitsh. Group led by Sharad plus support from RJD, Congress & independents may form govt.

Most probably either 1 or 2 will happen, Nitish comes back or he puts his right hand man to succeed.

The situation is fluid and there could be re-elections in next 6 months if MLAs as claimed by Sushil Modi leave JDU and cross sides. BJP is itching to settle score with Nitish and will do everything to trouble him.

In one of my first posts since I started blogging I have predicted that JDU will split post Lok Sabha polls, seems it is proving correct. Link below: http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/bjp-part-i/

Two other state govt. will be in trouble – Uttarakhand & Jharkhand. Watch out for this space…….

Related articles:

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/21/rebellion-in-bihar-bjp-starts/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/jdu-suspends-2-mps-as-predicted-party-headed-for-split/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/modi-hunkars-at-patna-rally-will-it-translate-into-votes/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/24/rumours-of-sharad-yadav-nitish-rift-surface/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/nitish-terms-namos-anointment-as-bjps-disaster-event/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/10/07/congress-in-double-mind-to-ally-with-nitish-or-lalu/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/modis-hoonkar-rally-in-patna-makes-nitish-nervous-president-avoids-clash/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/11/02/nitish-kumar-blasts-modi-says-his-dream-to-unfurl-flag-at-red-fort-will-remain-a-dream/

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/11/04/modi-hunkars-at-patna-rally-nitish-says-modi-wont-become-pm/

Lalu ensures Congress shows thenga to Nitish

Lalu, Paswan, Nitish queue up outside Congress HQ with red roses on Valentine’s Day

 

 

 

Comments

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Janata Dal United govt. survives for the time being in Bihar | Politicalbaaba

Janata Dal United govt. survives for the time being in Bihar | Politicalbaaba 2014-05-24 08:10:14/ Reply

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Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-18 22:57:09/ Reply

Well said. Not working with Modi though will also hamper Akhilesh & Mamata's state positions and will be difficult to get re-elected next time. For UP Modi has a gameplan to split it into smaller states.

desipoliticaljunkie

desipoliticaljunkie 2014-05-18 22:49:16/ Reply

There is likely a personal angle to this as well. Nitish's hatred for Modi seems to be very deep, real and visceral. I'm not sure where it comes from, but it is not mere political posturing. All indications are that he would find it impossible to swallow his loathing for the new PM and work with him. He was probably hoping against hope that despite all the opinion and exit polls pointing towards the contrary, Modi would somehow slip up before he could reach 7 RCR. Now that that avenue is closed, he would rather give up the CM's post than have to smile, meet PM Modi and talk about issues related to Bihar. The personal animosity on his part makes a professional relationship with the new central government untenable. Which brings us to another aspect that hasn't been discussed much; Modi's ambitious vision for overall national development and reform is highly dependent on cooperation and friendly relationships with the various CMs. Many large and important states are ruled by NDA (including, now, Seemandhra), and Maharashtra, Delhi and Haryana will likely be won by NDA before the end of the year. Several others (like TN, Odisha and Telangana) will be willing to work with Modi despite not being part of NDA for the greater good. But a few, notably UP, Bihar and WB, are led by parties who are irreversibly inimical to Modi and BJP, and would rather trip him up, even to the detriment of their own citizens, than put aside their political differences. If Bihar goes to the polls soon, as appears imminent, NDA can try to come to power there, but UP and WB will not fall into NDA's kitty any time soon. Modi is stuck with the likes of Akhilesh and Mamata for the foreseeable future. If he wants to secure a place in history (and a re-election in 2019), he would clearly need to improve the lot of the whole country, not just NDA-ruled states, but it will be a tough task if he has to deal with CMs who are not willing to give him the chance to do so, in order to cultivate their own vote bank and blame him for the "lack of development". http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

Politicalbaaba

Politicalbaaba 2014-05-18 20:40:39/ Reply

Thanks Vivek. I agree. Only one thing here is that Nitish has actually resigned and submitted it to governor. So it's not an offer like others.

Vivek

Vivek 2014-05-18 19:15:59/ Reply

Dear Political baabaji, These are all political jimmicks to divert every ones attention. 1. Assam CM was the first one to offer his resignation on the day of counting. 2. We were already informed that Sonia ji and Rahul ji offered their resignation from party posts. 3. TN Ex- CM's son and the sole decision maker in DMK during the recent times, Mr. Stalin offered his resignation from the party posts. 4. Bihar CM offered his resignation. etc. etc. are all to fool every one else including me and you. But the current scenario. 1. Assam CM was the first one to offer his resignation on the day of counting. - still not clear. his resignation will not be accepted on the high command on the states interest and the party's interest 2. We were already informed that Sonia ji and Rahul ji offered their resignation from party posts. - will be decided by the party high command (don't know who it is going to be) 3. TN Ex- CM's son and the sole decision maker in DMK during the recent times, Mr. Stalin offered his resignation from the party posts. - Mr. Karunanithi declined his son's resignation stating that his service is needed for the people of TN 4. Bihar CM offered his resignation - He is rethinking his decision and requested a days time, because of his party men's protest. Forget about all these corrupt and rotten politicians who will never change to put up the drama on every single occasion. We have the new government under the able leadership of Mr. Modi, I believe that he will be different from these politicians and do better for the people and country. These politicians are waiting to cast the drama whenever and wherever there is a chance. its waste of time to talk about them.

Sandesh Manroa

Sandesh Manroa 2014-05-18 11:28:45/ Reply

Arrogance and incompetency to read political scenario brought downfall of Nitish.He led Anti Modi Personal brigrade.It was written on the wall with bold letters that Nikku wud go.Now time will tell his sinister designs.Blog has written beautifully.

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