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कांग्रेस ने यूपी में गुलाम नबी आज़ाद का हाथ पकड़ लिया है. अगले साल होने वाले विधानसभा चुनाव के लिए कांग्रेस ने उत्तर प्रदेश का स्टेट इंचार्ज आजाद को बनाया है. राज्य के चुनाव मोदी के लिए काफी अहम हैं. अगर बीजेपी यूपी में चुनाव जीतती है तो 2019 लोकसभा चुनाव में पार्टी को रोकना नामुमकिन है. अगर बीजेपी चुनाव हारती है तो इससे देश में मोदी विरोधियों की उम्मीदें बढ़ेंगी और विपक्ष के पास एकजुट होकर ‘महागठबंधन’ करने का एक मौका रहेगा.

1990 में मंडल-कमंडल आंदोलन के बाद यूपी में कांग्रेस का वोट शेयर काफी कम रहा है. कांग्रेस ने अपनी सोयी किस्मत चमकाने के लिए प्रशांत किशोर को चुनावी अभियान की रणनीति तय करने के लिए नियुक्त किया है. कांग्रेस का मकसद इन चुनावों में हर हाल में बीजेपी को जीतने से रोकना है. अगर इस लक्ष्य को पार्टी पूरा कर लेती है, तो कांग्रेस के लिए ये एक किसी बड़े मिशन के सफल होने जैसा है.

कांग्रेस इस बात से वाकिफ है कि यूपी में मुकाबला चार पार्टियों के बीच है. सपा-बसपा-बीजेपी-कांग्रेस. इस चौतरफा मुकाबले में बीजेपी चुपके से अपना खेल बना सकती है. मायावती या अखिलेश के साथ गठबंधन वक्त की नज़ाकत है. सहयोगी पार्टियां कांग्रेस के लिए फायदेमंद रही हैं. बिहार और पश्चिम बंगाल इसके ताजा उदाहरण हैं. सपा और बसपा दोनों ही इस वक़्त कांग्रेस के लिए नरम नजर आ रहे हैं.

कांग्रेस इन चुनावों में अपने वोट बैंक यानी ब्राह्मण, दलित और मुस्लिमों के बीच फिर से पैठ बनाने की कोशिश करेगी. कुल जनसंख्या का 19 फीसदी वोट मुस्लिम समुदाय का है. मुस्लिम समुदाय का  करीब 17 फीसदी वोट कांग्रेस को मिलता रहा है. कांग्रेस इस पोजिशन को सुधारने के लिए अल्पसंख्यकों और पिछड़ों के चैंपियन बनने की कोशिश करेगी. जिसका मकसद सपा और बसपा के वोट बैंक में सेंध लगाने के साथ हार का डर पैदा करना रहेगा.

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चुनाव करीब हैं और ओपिनियन पोल में बसपा आगे नजर आ रही है, चीजें आने वाले वक्त में बदल सकती हैं. बीजेपी विकास, जातीय समीकरण और ध्रुवीकरण की रणनीति के साथ मैदान में पैर जमा सकती है. ऐसे में बसपा और सपा दोनों ही कांग्रेस के पास ‘गठजोड़’ के लिए जा सकती हैं.

कांग्रेस को मिलने वाला 6 से 8 फीसदी वोट शेयर मायावती या मुलायम को सिंहासन के करीब पहुंचा सकता है. तब सियासी साथी चुनने की डोर कांग्रेस के हाथ में होगी. बसपा ने कई राज्यसभा चुनावों में कांग्रेस के कई उम्मीदवारों का समर्थन किया. ऐसे में सपा के बजाय कांग्रेस के बसपा के साथ जाने की ज्यादा संभावनाएं हैं.

बीजेपी की हार, मायावती (दलित) और मुलायम सिंह (मुस्लिम) के वोट बैंक का हिस्सा अपने पाले में लाना तथा साथ ही बसपा और सपा के सामने गठबंधन की स्थिति पैदा करना पार्टी का लक्ष्य रहेगा. गुलाम नबी आजाद को यूपी का चार्ज देना इसी रणनीति के पहले कदम  की तरह देखा जा सकता है.

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